Perfume @Perfume@social.cleverlibre.org
目前暫不開放無嘟文帳號關注喔! 麻煩發幾篇自寫貼文避免幽靈帳號的疑慮, 謝謝! ^^
Joined Nov 2020
美軍時間不夠, 盟邦聯防來湊:
"Better yet, leveraging the rising enthusiasm about the potential for Quad-based cooperation, Japan can propose to work closely with the U.S. and Australia to look for ways to create a similar security cooperation framework among the Quad partners."
https://thediplomat.com/2021/09/aukus-lessons-for-japans-defense-industry/
沒想到居然是退輔會先馳得點....
"針對退輔會派員駐美一案，退輔會表示，經長期爭取後終於獲得美方同意，預計111年成行，短期目標為推動國民外交，中期目標是深化與美國交流，長期目標則是與美國退伍軍人事務部建立官方聯繫管道，提高國軍退伍軍人福祉。"
@PeiLun 嗚嗚～感覺被國賓騙了⋯⋯QQ
@PeiLun 咦？國賓的鉅幕廳不算嗎？
這篇認為當中國政府意識到投資效益低下後試圖用提高內需拉抬效益, 當投資集中於房市開始過熱後又嘗試以三條紅線等政策降溫, 於是地產開發商龍頭就這麼卡住了:
"Since 2008, it has needed ever more debt to deliver the same increment to economic output. Between 2008 and 2019, total debt—government, household and business—rose from 169% to 306% of gross domestic product, but GDP growth fell from 10% to 6%. Productivity growth adjusted for the expanding stock of buildings, machinery and other capital was 2.6% a year from 2000 to 2010. It has been negative since 2015, a sign of how inefficient much of that investment has been.
A few years ago Beijing recognized this model was unsustainable and has sought in fits and starts to shift to “higher quality” growth more dependent on consumers. That process was bound to be disruptive; indeed, it triggered a disorderly devaluation of the yuan in 2015, but it did succeed in slowing the buildup of debt.
Last year, to tide the economy through the pandemic, credit was loosened again. Yet Chinese officials see soaring housing prices as a threat to financial and social stability so they laid out a three-year timetable for lending to the red-hot property sector to be reined in. Just as the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate increases eventually popped the U.S. housing bubble over a decade ago, those regulatory restrictions, with a lag, popped China’s, said Gene Ma, head of China research at the Institute for International Finance. Evergrande was an early casualty since it is one of the most leveraged developers, he said."
"周婉窈表示，文協是很有意識在用台語作演講，台語可以說是抵抗的語言與象徵。文協的演講會，基本上採用台語，有時也會有日語演講會，那時就會有日本人來聽。當時從受傳統漢學教育的林獻堂，到在日本讀大學的新生代知識份子，都講台語，「這是我們今天很難想像的社會景象。」"
汪浩簡單點出恆大債務危機之所以是系統性風險而非單一企業或產業問題的成因：
「中國房地產是中國經濟支柱產業，穩增長必備：拉動GDP三成，貢獻財政四成，創造信用五成，是中國經濟內循環的核心動力。房地產的問題，絕不只是來自房地產，而是中國經濟增長模式、貨幣發行模式、信用創造模式、財政運行模式、國家和社會治理模式等種種問題的集中表現。 隨著人口懸崖和債務大爆發，房地產不斷的金融化，成為債務密集度畸高的行業。從拿地到開發，基本上都是依靠債務－－房企開發貸+居民按揭貸。
中國的債務型經濟增長模式，經過金融深化與金融自由化，已經具備所有金融危機的動因。 中國房地產的高槓桿屬性，銀行放貸失控火上澆油，房價上漲抵押物升值會進一步助推銀行加大放貸，甚至主動說服客戶抵押貸、放槓桿。在世界歷史上，歷次房地產泡沫中銀行業都深陷其中，房地產危機既是金融危機也是經濟危機。」
@meina 這盤是朋友做的calzone，撒了香料跟起士喔！～
重溫《沙丘》最喜歡的一段臺詞時才明白:
沙漠影射的是恐懼，象徵權力的帝國、智慧的姐妹會、財富的哈肯能、榮耀的亞崔迪，都只能互相牽制或一朝覆滅， 唯有走過恐懼，方能出脫荒涼。
這樣就覺得故事很像科幻版耶穌進入沙漠接受試煉, 沙漠變死亡幽谷, 溶入新身分重生的男主角救世主身分就理所當然~
"路透社及紐約時報報導，辛西亞．劉（Cynthia Liu）與維克特．劉（Victor Liu）在中國待了3年多後終於回到美國。過去3年多，儘管沒有面臨任何刑事指控，但根據「出境禁令」，他們遭禁止離開中國。他們的父親劉昌明（Liu Changming）是前銀行主管，因為涉犯詐欺罪在中國遭通緝，目前仍在逃。"
英艦游過台灣海峽去越南了~
[ “Wherever the Royal Navy operate, they do so in full compliance with international law,” the ministry said in a statement.
“The UK has a range of enduring security interests in the Indo-Pacific and many important bilateral defence relationships, this deployment is a sign of our commitment to regional security,” it added. ]
WSJ點出了澳洲以外的煤炭產區一時無法替補供應的原因:
"Skyrocketing coal prices mean many Chinese power plants are operating at lower margins, or even at a loss, as they don’t have full autonomy to raise power prices and pass on their higher costs. Coal supply has been tight in China due to tighter regulations on mining. The worsening relationship with Australia means China is seeking more imports from alternative sources—but some of those suppliers are experiencing their own problems, for example from heavy rains in Indonesia."
WSJ對碗粥案的結論簡潔有力:
"The Biden Administration wants better relations with China, which has been bullying U.S. envoys and refusing to cooperate on climate change (which seems to be President Biden’s main foreign-policy priority). The Huawei case looks like collateral damage in a diplomatic repair effort.
The release of Messrs. Spavor and Kovrig is good news. But China, and the rest of the world, will get the message that the coercive diplomacy of hostage-taking gets results."
驚訝於原來碗粥案除了公開的加拿大兩名人質外, 還有兩名無法離開韭國的隱形美國人質被釋放:
"A State Department official confirmed that the Massachusetts siblings, both in their 20s, returned to the U.S. on Sunday after more than three years of being subject to a vague “exit ban” from China. The pair had faced no allegations of wrongdoing in the country and were free to move around China, just not leave it.
The official said that the U.S. welcomes their return, that consular officials in Shanghai handled the matter and that the U.S. opposes the use of coercive exit bans. The official said the U.S. would continue to advocate on behalf of all American citizens in China subject to such bans and arbitrary detentions."
這篇則點出東南亞國家暗地支持AUKUS但同時不表態以免變成夾心餅乾:
"most Southeast Asian governments would learn to live with the agreement – even if not, like the Philippines, actively embracing it – and turn it to their advantage. (For instance, some Malaysian experts have suggested that the defense establishment is quietly supportive of the AUKUS pact.) At the same time, those nations that are most delicately poised between China and the U.S. can’t be seen to support it publicly."
https://thediplomat.com/2021/09/malaysia-to-seek-chinese-views-on-new-aukus-security-pact/
"我們每天都在煩惱，煩惱著該如何拋下內心蟄居的母親幽靈、父親幽靈、社會上各種意見的幽靈，進而毫無罪惡感地活出真正的自我。人們在告別這些幽靈，活出自我之前，必然經歷無數的悲痛與失去，而自我生命的安放處，就在與這些情緒拉鋸的過程中某個或遠或近的點上。
孩子出生後，遇見第一個能滿足自己快樂的對象，正是母親。第一段人際關係的開始，也是母親。孩子渴望母親，並且跟著母親的目光認識世界，而母親對待孩子原始慾望與需求的方式及態度，將會決定孩子未來的模樣。由於孩子只能透過母親這個對象來滿足自己，所以從這點來看，母親對孩子有著絕對的影響力。
「母性」，便是在這個脈絡之下被創造出來的社會觀念。「母親必須為孩子付出一切」，這種近乎理想般的使命與幻想，造成各種疾病與衝突、痛苦。無法成為理想母親的自責感與面對外界賦予過多的要求，使得許多母親與孩子的關係陷入一團糟。"
現在看智庫說法前都得先查一下成立跟資金與人事背景, 有夠累的~
"- les think tanks, la stratégie chinoise dans ce domaine étant duale, Pékin cherchant à implanter à l’étranger des antennes de think tanks chinois, et à exploiter des relais locaux qui peuvent être eux-mêmes des think tanks, avec trois cas de figure : les partenaires ponctuels servant de caisse de résonance sur les marchés des idées locaux, les alliés de circonstance qui travaillent avec le PCC de manière régulière et les complices qui partagent avec lui une vision commune du monde et dont les intérêts sont convergents."
目前暫不開放無嘟文帳號關注喔! 麻煩發幾篇自寫貼文避免幽靈帳號的疑慮, 謝謝! ^^
Joined Nov 2020
