TheOldGuy @TheOldGuy@social.cleverlibre.org
I am a Democrat who supports Ukraine in their battle against The Russian fascist invaders.
I am a 71 year old Covid hermit who
lives on 10 acres in a sparsely populated area of the Ozarks. I heat with wood that is leftover by the lumber industry. When cutting oak for lumber only the trunk is used.
The largest town is population 2992. The county is 13k people scattered over 713 square miles.
Joined Dec 2022
From "The Analyst":
RUSSIA IS ALL-IN: THERE’S NO GOING BACK
It’s ironic that Russia claims constantly how NATO is a threat. Yet on virtually every border - even the Kaliningrad exclave, defences have been stripped bare and troops removed.
Over the past month exceptionally high numbers of Russian Il-76 transport flights from the far east and European borders, have moved the remaining S-300 and S-400 systems towards more vulnerable regions of Russia’s frontlines with Ukraine - and Crimea. What was left to stand guard has gone. In effect Russia has now completely committed itself to the war on Ukraine.
There is no more pandering or pretence to defend places that really are under no threat whatsoever. There’s greater risk from internal strife than there is of a foreign power attacking. Which is exactly how it’s always been. Which in turn, emphasises that everything Russian leaders have ever said about the threat of NATO and Ukraine or any other country inside of NATO, is merely them trying to prevent potential victims from seeking protection.
The move to shift these defence systems tells us other key facts.
There are no more air defences to replace the losses they’ve suffered. When these go that’s it. Russian production rates just can’t get anywhere near what’s needed to produce whole systems at speed.
We know they fear increasing availability of ATACMS and SCALP/Stormshadow. We know they’re afraid of increasing drone strikes - indeed they’ve already started in retaliation for huge strikes at Kyiv this past few days in which 74 of 75 Shaheed were shot down. The missile strikes haven’t yet commenced.
Inside Russia we’re seeing a long string of fires, unexplained explosions and mysterious derailments. Around places like Melitopol there are pitch battles with Partisans who concentrate their attention on a target then melt into the environment, leaving the Russians wondering where and when next, they will strike.
The extremities of Russia are vulnerable. Russian influence is weaker now than ever and the countries of the former Soviet Union know it most. Slowly but surely they distance themselves from their former masters. They look south and east to their own languages and cultures, or to China and the west for economic development and commodity sales. They brazenly ignore Moscow’s feelings while paying lip service to its leadership to keep them quiet. Post war, Russia is going to turn around and find its back yard has a river of political and economic distance separating it from its old neighbours. And it will have no way to change the outcome.
The Russians are at the bottom of the barrel in equipment and quality. The few technical advances they make are not in themselves going to change the war. Yet they’re all-in. There’s no going back. If anything the end of the war will reveal the vast cracks in Russia dictatorship and conflict are papering over. Without war, how can anything be justified?
The advantages of being ‘all-in’ are many - everyone knows what the target is. The disadvantages are when it’s over you’re by definition, ‘all-out’. And when you haven’t won and everyone knows it, the price of failure will be paid. Not even Putin will avoid that day. And it will come.
The front as of the end of the day on November 27, 2023 - DeepState
▶️ The situation in the Belomoskovsky, Siverskyi and Belgorod sections remains unchanged. Enemy subversive reconnaissance groups continue to intensify their activities and shelling of our border regions.
▶️ Svatove section - Katsaps failed to gain a foothold in Sinkivka, but their advanced positions are right in front of the village. Due to a number of factors, a creeping retreat continues near Lyman Pershyi. The enemy is rotating personnel and pulling up newly mobilized resources. The enemy's attempt to resume the offensive near Novoselivske failed. Enemy attacks were also repelled in Serebryanske forestry.
▶️ Bakhmut direction - the enemy continues to put pressure on Klishchiyivka, Andriivka and north of Kurdyumivka - fighting continues. Katsaps have become more active in the area of Mayorske.
▶️ Avdiivka section - the enemy is actively attacking south of Novokalynove, near Stepove, in the industrial area, near the water pumping station (near AKHZ), from Opytne and Vodiane. We managed to repel almost everything. We would like to mention the defenders of Pervomaiske from the 59th Separate Mechanized Brigade, who are repelling constant attacks from Pisky. The enemy tried to improve the tactical situation
▶️ Berdiansk section - no changes.
▶️ Zaporizhzhia section - clashes took place west of Robotyne - no changes recorded.
▶️ Tavriya sector - no changes.
🗂 Analytical note. The enemy continues to hold the initiative, striking in many areas of the front. The weather conditions do not affect the enemy much, they attack and dig both in the cold and in the rain. The occupation army continues to build up, which, despite all the losses, is compensated for with a margin.
Pistol lessons to 4th graders in Russia
https://t.me/WarriorsUkrainian/15481
German exports to Kyrgyzstan
https://t.me/liveukraine_media/15826
Sochi in Russia being washed away
https://t.me/liveukraine_media/15825
Deteriorating weather at the front
🇺🇸 The US Congress promised to approve aid to Ukraine before Christmas (December 25). Speaker of the House of Representatives Mike Johnson said he was "confident and optimistic" about this issue, but called for help for Israel first.
@liveukraine_media
Two generations of Crimean Tatars, united by exile and a shared dream of returning to their homeland.
In 1944, the Soviet regime deported the entire Crimean Tatar population from Crimea, a tragic event that left a lasting mark on the community. Lia's grandma, among the many who were forced to leave their homeland, found herself in Uzbekistan, far from the familiar shores of Crimea.
Despite the challenges of exile, the Crimean Tatar spirit endured. Generations later, Lia herself faced a similar displacement when Russia annexed Crimea in 2014. Forced to flee her home once again, she found solace in the stories and traditions passed down by her grandmother, a testament to the enduring legacy of the Crimean Tatar people.
Cat Phoenix, who got out from under the rubble in Bucha with numerous burns and injuries, has recovered and returned to normal life
@liveukraine_media
Sweden will provide more than $9.5 million for the "Grain from Ukraine" initiative
Sweden will provide another 100 million Swedish kroner (over 9.5 million dollars) for the implementation of the "Grain from Ukraine" initiative through the World Food Program, Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson announced on social media.
He emphasized that Ukraine continues to contribute to global food security despite the fact that Russia continues its aggressive war.
If the West does not maintain its support for Ukraine at a high level, the next year will be even more favorable for Russia, - President of the Czech Republic Pavel
"Our stocks of military equipment are insufficient. We have not fulfilled our promises to supply the artillery with ammunition, the training of F-16 crews is not going as fast as we would like," Pavel warned.
He noted that Ukraine expected to receive German Taurus cruise missiles, but Berlin has not yet made a decision on this matter.
"This creates an imbalance in supplies, and uncertainty is not a good basis for military plans," the Czech president said.
"FROM THE ANALYST"
UKRAINE SPRINGS A TRAP
The Russians having failed in the north to shift the balance decided as expected, that they would attempt to break the nearly ten year old contact line in front of the industrial plant in the central southeastern area of the Avdivka front.
Pounding the industrial area with artillery had reduced it to rubble over the last ten years and even more so since the war began in 2022.
Ukraine took a long hard look at its defences - automated machine gun positions in heavy fortifications are in multiple areas of the surrounding hills, along with trench lines in the old vineyards.
The forest to the north is fully controlled by Ukraine and is an area the Russians have assiduously avoided - they know it would be disastrous trying to get the Ukrainian forces out if it in a frontal attack.
Having then decided on taking the industrial zone they began their assault.
Heavy artillery pounded it again, the Ukrainians were however already gone, realising it was pointless sitting there being shelled and that the area was covered on three sides by their own forces. The Russians moved in, only to find the rubble they created provided no cover at all and there was nowhere to hide.
Ukrainian drones had spent much of the previous day isolating Russian artillery, suicide drones and HIMARS made scrap of them, cutting the Russians off from heavy artillery support, which they rely on when using primarily infantry.
The resulting death toll in the fire zone sent Russian casualties over the 1,000 level yet again. Most of the bodies were simply left behind as they withdrew.
While the area is now in the grey zone, Ukrainian control over the surrounding area makes it difficult for Russia to exploit it.
Another tough but successful day for Ukraine!
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
I want some of whatever drug Steve must be on.
We have no choice but to give Ukraine everything it needs to regain its sovereignty and control over its borders, — Czech President Petr Pavel in an interview with the Corriere della Sera.
All other scenarios of the war, he said, would be a defeat for the allies.
“A Russian victory would turn against us in the future because it would strengthen their perception that they can achieve their goals by military power and encourage all similar regimes around the globe that Western democracies are weak.
(…) From our own experience with Russia, we know that the only language that they understand is the language of force,” — Pavel emphasizes.
The Czech president also stressed that any potential negotiations with Russia should not take place "on the terms imposed by Putin."
The journalist asked Pavel whether it seems that while the allies are discussing assistance to Ukraine and hesitating to provide certain types of weapons, Russia is increasing its own production.
«Unfortunately, our deliveries of military equipment are not strong enough to allow Ukraine to continue a high intensity of operation.
We failed to keep our promises of delivering Ukrainians with artillery ammunition, and training for the F-16 is not running as fast as it should. This creates an imbalance in deliveries, and the uncertainty is not a good foundation for military planning,” he replied.
According to Pavel, the winter will give Russia, which has already managed to put its industry into war mode, time to rearm.
“They are now producing much larger caliber ammunition, more tanks, and they are recruiting more soldiers. They are in negotiation with a number of countries in terms of deliveries: North Korea has a potential 1 million artillery rounds.
If we miss the opportunity to sustain our support for Ukraine, then next year may be even more favorable to Moscow. This year is quite crucial for developing success because next year will be more complicated. But I still believe that we have the capacity to change things,”— the President concluded.
❗️Putin approved increase in military spending to record level since USSR, — The Moscow Times
For the first time since Soviet times, the Kremlin will direct almost a third of all expenses to the maintenance of the army and the defense-industrial complex. In 2024, 10.775 trillion rubles will be spent on national defense—70% more than in 2023, 2.3 times more than in 2022, and three times more than in the pre-war year 2021.
30% of the 2024 budget will go to the army and the People's Army, 40% to all security forces together.
Russia has suspended exchanges of prisoners of war to influence Ukrainian society, — Coordination HQ.
Russia has suspended exchanges of prisoners of war since August to create the impression that the Ukrainian authorities are not working on this issue, — stated a representative of the Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War, Petro Yatsenko.
"But in fact, the work is in progress, we are not sitting idly by, and we are constantly working to organize the next exchanges," Yatsenko said.
I am a Democrat who supports Ukraine in their battle against The Russian fascist invaders.
I am a 71 year old Covid hermit who
lives on 10 acres in a sparsely populated area of the Ozarks. I heat with wood that is leftover by the lumber industry. When cutting oak for lumber only the trunk is used.
The largest town is population 2992. The county is 13k people scattered over 713 square miles.
Joined Dec 2022
TheOldGuy's choices:
