TheOldGuy @TheOldGuy@social.cleverlibre.org

It's going cold tonight. They started saying 31⁰ and now say 29⁰, so it will probably be 27⁰. Tomorrow night 22⁰. Got smart. Went in the house about a half hour ago and built a fire. It takes about 2 hours before the stove is putting out heat. For the first two hours it just absorbs the heat. Lots of firebrick inside.

🗡 Today, the Katsapas once again set foot in a convoy in the area of ​​the Avdiiv Terikon - DeepState

🇷🇺 About 15 armored personnel carriers drove through Krasnohorivka to the south to Terikon, dropped the ruzZian infantry and went back. The combined efforts of all the brigades on the site managed to destroy more than half of the equipment. The landing party is concentrated in the landings, its destruction continues. Expect a video of equipment damage from the crews in the coming days.

📋 Tactics generally do not change. Regular columns in the hope of a quick operation. Again, we are talking about the important role of surveillance of the LBZ from drones and other UAVs, which reduce to zero the possibility of any blitzkrieg at the operational-tactical level.

Surrounded and surrendering, one soldier left a note on a brick. I guess he expected to die in captivity.

✈️  Defense Blog reports that Ukraine has begun full-scale production of its AQ-400 kamikaze UAV, that has a maximum speed of 144 km/h, a range of up to 750 km, and capable of carrying warheads weighing up to 32 kg

The initial production volume is stated at 100 units per month, but the company plans to increase it to 500 per month

P.S. Just look at these sick bastards (😁). The appearance of the drone certainly leaves room for improvement, but the main thing is that I hope it will do its job well 😈

🗡 Today, the Ruzzians once again set foot in a column in the area of ​​the Avdiivka Terikon

About 15 armored personnel carriers drove through Krasnohorivka to the south to Terikon, dropped the infantry and went back. With the joint efforts of all the brigades on the site, it was possible to destroy more than half of the vehicles. Expect a video of equipment damage from the crews in the coming days.

📋 Tactics generally do not change. Regular columns in the hope of a quick amphibious operation. Again, we are talking about the important role of surveillance of drones and other UAVs, which reduce to zero the possibility of any blitzkrieg at the operational-tactical level.

From "The Analyst":

WEATHER CONDITIONS HAMMER
FRONTLINE ACTIVITY

The long forecast collapse of part of the Polar Vortex, which happens as warm equatorial air pushes north out of the Pacific, (caused by the El Niño effect which is at a high), tips freezing cold air south - often over the US and Canada or North Atlantic- but just as often over Russia.
The size of Russia means that the air flow splays out over much wider areas and plunging cold air has done just that, with part of it blasting across most of the frontlines, where it again meets warmer wet air blown west from Europe.
The result is high winds in the Black Sea and a constant ebbing and flowing of heavy rain and freezing conditions, quickly swapping with wind blasted frozen rain.
The temperature changes are dramatic, with -6c nights and days swapping with 6c days where everything rapidly melts have been common.
The results are appalling front line conditions, deep mud, flooded and frozen trenches, no sleep, trapped vehicles, slow logistics.
Heavy fog forms reining in drone use and equipment is plastered in mud.
Trench Foot - a nasty and painful condition that rots the flesh, last seen in the war in Korea caused by sodden footwear, hobbles soldiers.
Shelter and somewhere to hide when you can’t move is hard to come by. Many of the tree lines, such a ubiquitous feature of Ukraine, designed to break the speed of harsh winds and stop soil erosion, are now devastated stumps with no leaf cover to hide under.
This winter is not going to be like last years mild one. All the forecasts for Russia and Ukraine are for a harder deeper cold. Russia you would think is prepared for it, but little has been done to winterise their forces. Ukraine has much that was granted last year and not used - more is coming from Scandinavia and Canada.
Spare a thought for those who will spend the next weeks and months defending Ukraine in filthy mud, slime, freezing snows and blizzards.
The next few months are going to be very hard indeed.

Patriarch Kirill is safely back in Moscow but there is now an arrest warrant.
https://t.me/WarriorsUkrainian/16712

Children hear these sirens every day.
https://t.me/United24media/16435

A very successful campaign to raise money for drones. The drones save lives. Ukrainians take out Russian soldiers with minimal risk to themselves
https://mil.in.ua/en/news/more-than-uah-220-million-raised-for-5-thousand-fpv-drones/

Britain is considering the possibility of sending troops
https://t.me/United24media/16426

🗣 The Ukrainian General Staff has changed its military strategy. The new task is to inflict as many casualties on the occupiers as possible while preserving as many Ukrainian military personnel as possible, — Bild with reference to an officer of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

Now there is no pressure on us to move forward. The key now will be the loss ratio. If the ratio is 10 to 1, we hold our positions, if it’s 1 to 1, we retreat, — said the officer

These tactics will continue until Russia loses enough men and equipment to exhaust its offensive capabilities, or until a game changer arrives at the front and allows Ukraine to regain the initiative. Such "game changers" could be ATACMS or Taurus missiles (in large deliveries) + F-16 or JAS-39 fighters

P.S. In short, as I understand it, Ukraine is putting itself on strategic defense like last winter, until (if) supplies of the weapons described above arrive. Then, in 2024, as was written in the previous post, Ukraine may try again to carry out an offensive operation, but with new weapons

Ukraine may lose the war by summer 2024 without US and NATO help - CNN

The publication says that Western intelligence agencies are now calculating how long Ukraine can survive without US and NATO assistance. According to one senior U.S. military official, it is a matter of "months," with the worst-case scenario being "a significant retreat or even defeat" by the summer of 2024.

Western officials estimate that without additional U.S. assistance, Ukraine will first run out of long-range missiles, then air defense missiles, and then artillery munitions and short-range missiles such as Javelin anti-tank missiles and Stinger anti-aircraft missiles.

The absence of a decision on military aid in Congress is already affecting the battlefield in Ukraine. According to CNN's sources, Ukrainian troops are already rationing ammunition, and Russia has a "five to seven times" advantage in ammunition.

@liveukraine_media

Ukrainian forces are already rationing ammunition due to the delay in the US aid, and the cessation of US support will be crucial for Ukraine — CNN.

Senior US and Ukrainian officials have reported that Russian forces now have a five- to sevenfold advantage in shells over the Ukrainian Armed Forces. This leads to additional losses in the ranks of the Ukrainian army.

According to Western officials, without additional US assistance, Ukraine would first run out of long-range missiles, then air defense missiles, and later artillery ammunition and short-range missiles such as shoulder-fired Javelin anti-tank missiles and Stinger anti-aircraft missiles.

"Each category of munition has been crucial to Ukraine’s defense. The long-range missiles, such as the UK-supplied Storm Shadow cruise missiles, have been central to Ukraine’s success in pushing back Russia’s Black Sea fleet hundreds of miles to open up a shipping corridor for grain and other supplies.

Air defense missiles have proven particularly essential in recent weeks as Russia has expanded its attacks on civilian infrastructure this winter.

Shorter-range missiles have enabled Ukrainian forces to defend against Russian tanks and aircraft, which greatly outnumber their own," the article says.

A senior US military official believes that without US and NATO assistance, Ukraine will last only a few months in this war and will be defeated in the summer of 2024, CNN reports.

In Europe, there is also increasing discontent with the actions of the US Congress, which is blocking aid to Ukraine.

“I don’t think people fully realize what Ukraine’s fall would actually mean. We would see horrible things: ethnic cleansing and the total destruction of Ukraine. Remember what they did in Bucha. If we can prevent this, it will be a success,” an unnamed European diplomat stated.

Ukraine's EU membership will require a profound reform of European rules, — French President Macron at a press conference following the EU summit in Brussels.

"Both politically and financially, Ukraine and Ukrainians needed our support in a context that we all know very well.

And we are continuing important work, which, in my opinion, was the achievement of the last two years, namely the unity and very firm European support of Ukrainians", — Macron stated.

However, according to him, any expansion will require a profound reform of the rules.

Macron added that since Ukraine has fulfilled six of the seven conditions for starting negotiations on EU membership, “all that is needed is to confirm European support in the short and long term and promptly fulfill security commitments”.

Ukraine is planning a new counteroffensive next year, — Welt.

📍The United States has received a list from Ukraine of desired weapons that includes Black Hawk and Apache attack helicopters, F-16 and F-18 fighters, missile systems, Abrams tanks, UAVs, and ammunition.

📍Ukraine can still count on 95% of all weapons systems supplied by the West, as they have not yet been used at the front.

📍In the south, the Ukrainian Armed Forces hold a bridgehead on the left side of the Dnipro River and continue to expand it. It is only 60 kilometers to Crimea. Crimea is a weak point for the Russians.

📍Zaluzhnyi was not a supporter of starting a summer offensive. A rapid breakthrough was not possible, and changing the strategy was a smart move to gain the necessary time.

📍"Ukraine is probably gathering resources for a new counteroffensive next year. One of the starting points could be a bridgehead in Kherson. With the necessary fighter jets, attack helicopters and drones, Ukraine could provide sufficient support to advance its troops, especially since there are almost no Russian fortifications in the region”.

Defenders shot down 30 out of 31 drones

https://t.me/liveukraine_media/16323

14 tanks in the daily losses. That is the well trained teams at work.
https://t.me/WarriorsUkrainian/16683

Kinzhal missiles contain 77 components made in the USA.
https://t.me/WarriorsUkrainian/16679

Good morning from Roman and Didi.
https://t.me/WarriorsUkrainian/16681

Good morning. The rain that started yesterday evening continues. Tonight it's hits 30⁰. Tomorrow night lower still.