TheOldGuy @TheOldGuy@social.cleverlibre.org

He has no way out. So he is filing nonsense
https://www.palmerreport.com/analysis/no-way-out-3/54428/

US funding failure will have serious battlefield consequences, says Ukraine - Guardian

Zelenskiy aide says ‘foreign policy has become a hostage of internal politics’ after Republicans torpedo aid bill

The repeated failure of the Biden administration to get a funding package for Ukraine approved by the Senate will have real consequences in terms of lives on the battlefield and Kyiv’s ability to hold off Russian forces on the frontline, say Ukrainian officials.

The latest move by Senate Republicans to torpedo a bipartisan bill that would have combined $60bn (£48bn) in aid for Ukraine with aid to Israel and increased border security measures is a bitter blow for Kyiv. It could signal a very grim year ahead as the US political agenda settles into an election year with Donald Trump all but certain to be the Republican candidate.

As the two-year anniversary of Russia’s full-scale war in Ukraine approaches, Ukrainian officials say the delay in US support has already had a clear impact on the battlefield, where Kyiv’s exhausted troops have a severe hardware deficit in comparison to the Russians.

Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s aide Mykhailo Podolyak said Russian troops were using about 10,000 artillery shells a day along the length of the frontline while Ukrainian troops were restricted to using between 1,500 and 2,500 in response. He said the shortage of equipment made long-term planning impossible.

“If you have a clear understanding that in the next three to six months you’ll have a particular number of long-distance missiles, for example, you can plan for which infrastructure targets to hit on the occupied territories. And when you sit here today with a deficit, and with uncertainty, you can only fight a defensive war, and this is a stimulant for Russia,” he said in an interview in Kyiv.

The US ambassador to Ukraine, Bridget Brink, expressed thinly veiled frustration with the stalling of the support package on Wednesday, noting there was a massive Russian missile attack on Ukraine overnight. “There is no time to lose. Ukraine needs our security assistance now,” she wrote on X.

Yuriy Boyechko, the president of US-based aid organisation Hope for Ukraine, said: “Everyone was hoping that US won’t let us down, and now we find ourself at a very difficult place. People are losing hope little by little. We dont have time for this because we see what’s going on at the front. The
more time we give for the Russians to build up their stockpiles, even if the aid is going to show up it might be too little too late.”

“It’s very frustrating; even when it comes to Republicans who were traditionally friends of Ukraine, classic Republicans. They know
now that Trump has full control of the party and many of them are avoiding us,” said one source with knowledge of Ukraine’s efforts to bring around Republicans.

Democratic negotiator ‘still shaking’ over Ukraine assistance / border package collapse - The Hill

Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), one of the lead Democratic negotiators behind the hard-fought border security deal, called the bill’s collapse due to a diminishment of GOP support “shocking.”

“I mean, the whole thing is still shocking to me. I am still shaking, having watched the most bizarre, maddening phenomenon I’ve ever been a part of in politics,” Murphy told The Washington Post’s The Early 202 newsletter. “On Sunday afternoon, we had 20 to 25 gettable Republicans. Twenty-four hours later we had four.”

Most of the GOP conference in the upper chamber, save four Republicans, voted against advancing a motion to proceed on a border security package in a 49-50 vote Wednesday.

The border component was part of a larger national security supplemental package, which included emergency foreign aid to assist Ukraine and Israel’s war efforts and increase security around the Indo-Pacific. The deal, which collapsed Wednesday, followed months of negotiations led by Murphy, Republican Sen. James Lankford (Okla.) and Independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (Ariz.).

Senate GOP members have insisted any further aid to Ukraine must be tied with border security reform.

Asked if the negotiations were “for nothing” follow the bill’s demise, Murphy said: “I think every time you try to strike a big compromise, you have to realize there’s a chance of failure.”

“I think it’s important for the parties to be continually trying to find common ground — even on the big, tough issues like immigration, even if we fail,” he continued. “As we speak, we don’t yet know what the fate of Ukraine funding is.”

Murphy added, “But it could be that the disaster of the last 48 hours inside the Republican Party has shamed them into supporting a clean bill funding Ukraine, Israel and humanitarian assistance. Time will tell.”

🇩🇪🇺🇦 "Our message is clear: We have to do our utmost to prevent Russia from winning. If we don’t, we might soon wake up in a world even more unstable, threatening and unpredictable than it was during the Cold War", - Olaf Scholz in an author's column for the WSJ

Make no mistake: A Russian victory in Ukraine would not only be the end of Ukraine as a free, democratic and independent state, it would also dramatically change the face of Europe. It would deal a severe blow to the liberal world order. Russia’s brutal attempt to steal territory by force could serve as a blueprint for other authoritarian leaders around the globe. More countries would run the risk of falling prey to a nearby predator.

This possibility is why the U.S. and Europe support Ukraine’s fight for freedom. President Biden’s leadership has been critical to ensure that Vladimir Putin’s aggression is met with a united and successful response. So far, Mr. Putin hasn’t achieved any of his war goals. He thought that he could take the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, within two weeks. After two years, he still is far from accomplishing this, and Ukraine is bravely withstanding the Russian onslaught. This is due to the heroic fighting of the Ukrainian people, but it’s also a result of the West’s fiscal and humanitarian support and the delivery of weapons and ammunition to Ukraine.

The European Union and its member states have been Ukraine’s largest financial supporter, having contributed more than $91 billion since the beginning of the war, followed by the U.S. and Germany.

Our message is clear: We have to do our utmost to prevent Russia from winning. If we don’t, we might soon wake up in a world even more unstable, threatening and unpredictable than it was during the Cold War. Despite our support, Ukraine could soon face serious shortages in arms and ammunition.

The long-term consequences and costs of failing to stop Mr. Putin’s aggression would dwarf any of the investments that we are making now.

Elon Musk is a traitor to American interests

https://t.me/WarriorsUkrainian/20806

Good morning from Warriors Ukrainian

https://t.me/WarriorsUkrainian/20758

Daily losses

https://t.me/WarriorsUkrainian/20759

💔 😔 Pilot Vladyslav Rykov died at the front during a combat mission. He has 385 sorties to his credit.

"He was the best pilot and commander I knew. He covered my back from the beginning of the full-scale war both on the ground and in the air, trained a large number of both fighters and leaders."
– pilot Rostyslav Lazarenko.

Vladyslav left a little daughter💔

From "The Analyst"

RUSSIA HUMILIATED AGAIN

Ukrainian marines stormed a Black Sea platform the Russians had been using as a monitoring station. They captured the radar and comms systems, dismantling them and taking them away, before blowing up the platform and heading safely home.
The platform was the last one the Russians had that monitored the north western Black Sea and coast of free Ukraine. It was also used to guide Shaheed drones towards Odesa.
Meanwhile deeply embarrassing video found its way to the internet.
The video shows a Russian S-400 site not even on alert, as StormShadow missiles fly right over the top in full view. It’s almost mind boggling in its elegant simplicity and outlines the total failure of the long range air surveillance for Crimea, and the huge success of Ukraine in eliminating it.
The video has caused outrage in Russia although it is technically explainable. Without the long range radar the missiles weren’t detected so the S-400 isn’t alerted to turn on its own radar to operate. It can’t risk turning its radar on permanently or HARM’s will surely find and destroy it.
Whichever way you look at it the inability of the air defence systems to function, is extraordinarily effective and Ukrainian strategy taking them out so completely has been completely right.
Even worse is that the S-400 and Pantsir site was so close to Belbeck
Airbase that you can see the missiles hit it.

AVDIVKA

Meanwhile at Avdivka the Russians persist in their attacks in the north and constantly send in attack groups of 2-6 men one after the other. In addition they have been hammering the defences of the area with repeated FAB-500 strikes to weaken the front and rear support areas.
Added to that the use of thermobaric weapons has created devastation in the centre of Avdivka which is their ultimate goal as the push into this area.
The situation is very grave and defending here with thermobarics inbound is excruciatingly dangerous and hard. A thermobaric works almost like a nuclear weapon on a small scale, usually dispersing a fuel-air explosive vapour that detonates at extremely high pressure, causing an intense but fast dissipating effect with very high levels of overpressure. It literally crushes humans and knocks down any unreinforced material such as walls. The heat is also so intense little inside its effective range can survive. The zone inside the range of the explosion also consumes its oxygen for a few seconds, leading to asphyxiation, if by some miracle you haven’t been burned or crushed.
The downside is the launchers have to be close to the target - around 2-3km is usual, which makes them vulnerable to drone attacks.
The fighting is so intense that Ukrainian drone operators are working 24 hour shifts to repel the attacks and somehow, though god knows how, Ukraine is holding the line. The problem is withdrawing would change nothing as the Russians just use the same tactics on the new area which quickly becomes no easier to defend than the original line. So they stay. Such heroism is hard to imagine and their determined approach is deeply inspirational.
The cost to Russia is running at around 500 men a day just in Avdivka and over 1000 every day this past week. By the end of next week they will have passed the 400,000 dead total.
They seem desperate to capture Avdivka for Putins political purposes prior to his inevitable re-election. He seems to want it desperately to prove the war has meaning. Because like it or not, as the Washington Post reported at some depth this morning, the level of opposition is rising sharply - more are willing to publicly support the Mothers and the last candidate to stand any chance of challenging him is likely to be disqualified. Even so, increasing protests and under the surface opposition to the war is growing.

The bravery of the Ukrainian people is truly astounding.

Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦!

⚡️ Ukraine "will not be instantly defeated" without American help, "but the degradation of its forces will be inexorable", - The New York Times

They note that European countries do not have stocks of weapons and ammunition at the American level and are unlikely to be able to fill this gap.

"Ukraine could effectively hold out for part of this year without an increase in American military aid. But over time, there will be no prospect of rebuilding the army, and they will begin to lose slowly.

"Never since the beginning of the invasion has Ukraine faced such a dangerous moment in the war," the newspaper writes.

Meanwhile, Biden said that Ukraine is at a "critical point in the war," while the United States is "retreating."

Stockpiles of ammunition and weapons in Ukraine are decreasing, and hostilities are expected to intensify already in the spring

The situation at the nuclear power plant captured by the Russians is more tense than before

"On February 1, approximately 120 employees of the station were not allowed to perform their duties at the station. This is due to the fact that the employees refused to receive passports of an enemy country. This was the reason for not allowing them to perform their duties. This is extremely dangerous." - the head of OVA Ivan Fedorov.

He added that the fewer people controlling this process, the greater the danger

This guy and his partner took out 40 Russian vehicles.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/02/05/one-ukrainian-paratrooper-and-his-partner-working-alone-near-vuhledar-have-knocked-out-40-russian-vehicles-he-got-a-taste-for-blood/?sh=5fe933c328eb

Soldier Serhii Mokryak died on September 5, 2023 in the Zaporizhzhia region. He was 29 years old.

Serhiy lived in Kirovohrad Oblast. He worked in a mine. In his spare time he liked to repair cars and spend time with his family.

In January 2023, Serhiy was called up to the ranks of the Armed Forces. After the training, up to 80 ODSHBr were distributed.

"Serhiy was a true patriot of our country, a good family man. For friends - a faithful companion who always came to help. For me, it is a reliable shoulder," said Olena's wife.

The paratrooper was posthumously awarded the Order "For Courage" III degree.

His mother, wife and daughter were waiting for him at home.

Letter from Judge Engeron

https://open.substack.com/pub/joycevance/p/judge-engorons-email?r=5co0k&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

Tucker Carlson mat get sanctioned for his trip to Russia and the Putin interview.

https://t.me/liveukraine_media/17988

The front as of the end of the day on 7 February 2024 - DeepState

▶️ Bilomoskovsky, Siversky and Bilhorodsky sections - no changes.

▶️ Svatove section - the enemy is pulling up reserves for a potential attack in the area of Tabaivka, it is likely that one of the strikes will be in the rear of our grouping in Kotlyarivka and Kyslivka. To the east of Terny and Yampolivka, the fighting is characterised by swings. The Defence Forces are inflicting significant damage on the advancing enemy units.

▶️ Bakhmut direction - fighting continues near Bilohorivka (L). There was an attempt by the enemy to gain tactical success with columns of 20 weapons and military equipment. Katsaps were advancing on Ivanivske, the situation is being clarified. Katsaps are trying to hold their positions near the gas distribution station (Horlivka) at any cost.

▶️ Avdiivka section - there were enemy attempts to advance near Stepove, but they were unsuccessful. The situation in Avdiivka itself is critical and chaotic. The enemy continues to advance in the private sector along Nezalezhnosti and Sapronova streets. In the area of the railway bridge, the katsaps have partial success and are storming the positions in the dachas in the direction of the stele at the entrance and the motor depot. Katsaps actively climbed the road, but suffered losses and retreated. The situation is similar in the area of the State Fiscal Service. In the south of the city, the enemy is so fanatical that they are surrounded and holding a circular defence. Fighting continues in Pervomayske and near Nevelske. Katsaps are storming the eastern part of Heorhiivka and the Pobeda area. Unfortunately, the enemy has entered the outer houses of Novomykhailivka, it is unknown whether they managed to drive it out.

▶️ The situation in the Berdiansk sector remains unchanged.

▶️ Zaporizhzhya sector - the area around Robotyne and Kamyanka has been clarified.

▶️ Tavriya sector - the contact line in Krynky has been updated, the enemy has been pushed back a little from the buildings.

🗂 Analytical note. The situation in Avdiivka is traditionally the most difficult. The private sector is in chaos and the IAF is not ready to fight in urban areas. Unfortunately, fires caused by strategic miscalculations have to be extinguished with human lives. It should be understood that the Katsaps have not yet deployed their main forces in the area, so the question is how to stop them. The enemy's latest moves are designed to finally kill the logistics to old Avdiivka. So far, at the cost of extraordinary efforts, the 110th Brigade has managed to hold the eastern front, which has not changed much. "There is no place for the living here" - this is what the locals say about the city

At a press conference alongside his Portuguese counterpart, João Gomes Cravinho, the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Dmytro Kuleba, expressed Ukraine's expectation for the European Union to expedite the supply of artillery shells. Kuleba emphasized the urgency of this matter, highlighting the concrete understanding between Ukraine and the EU regarding the necessary steps to increase the supply promptly.

"We discussed the ways in which the European Union can increase the supply of artillery shells to Ukraine in the required quantity. There is a concrete understanding of what and how to do. We welcome the active position of the European Union in the search for these solutions and sincerely hope that they will be successful," Kuleba stated.

He also underscored the significance of this decision for Ukrainian soldiers on the front lines, emphasizing their anticipation and
gratitude toward every European country willing to assist in ensuring the expedient delivery of artillery shells.

"I can immediately say that the Ukrainian soldiers on the front lines are waiting for
this decision and will be grateful to every European country that will help ensure that as many artillery shells as possible reach Ukraine in the shortest possible time," Kuleba concluded.

The US Senate adjourned Wednesday evening still in search of two more Republicans who will vote for a stand-alone bill for U.S. assistance to Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan.

The chamber will now hold a procedural vote Thursday on a $95 billion national security package with money for the three U.S. allies.

“We will recess until tomorrow and give our Republican colleagues the night to figure themselves out,” said Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer, New York Democrat.

At least eight Senate Republicans indicated they were prepared to advance the foreign aid without the border deal, a remarkable reversal from prior GOP demands to include immigration policies.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky was among the Republicans on board with the aid.

“If America fails to stand with our partners on the front lines in Europe and the Middle East, we will shred our credibility with friends in the Indo-Pacific,” Mr. McConnell said.

Some Republicans were seeking amendment votes on illegal immigration, despite hours earlier voting against the border deal.

Sen. James Lankford of Oklahoma, Republicans’ chief negotiator for the border provisions, borrowed a talking point from Democrats to accuse his GOP colleagues of playing election-year politics with a
contentious policy.

The foreign aid bill would still need final approval, if advanced on Thursday. That could come as soon as later this week before the Senate embarks on a two-week
recess.

But even if it clears the upper chamber, it would still need to pass in the Republican-
controlled House of Representatives.

A lot of people want Donnie on trial

https://www.palmerreport.com/analysis/these-numbers-are-ugly-for-donald-trump/54424/

District 3 in New York.

https://www.palmerreport.com/analysis/this-one-is-becoming-more-crucial-than-ever/54413/