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@happymoomoo its hard to answer questions of the nature "if we had the tech".. since its hard to know what tech is even possible if we havent accomplished it yet..

It depends on so many factors.

But thats a bit of circular argument...

it basically says "if we had the tech to support large populations (a mega city) then we could support a large population (trillions of people)"...

Well sure, but is such tech possible or within arms reach? That I dont know, but I dont think so.

@Demosthenes Im not saying we hit our capacity, I am saying that the slow down in growth rate is not due to any personal choices or human understanding. It is the result of being closer (not hit) to the carrying capacity.

The reason reproduction rate is highest in africa is because population density is much lower there, therefore they are much farther away from their carrying capacity. also brith rate is **not** equal to growth rate.. Even at or near carrying capacity birth rate can be rather high in a species, but the growth rate will be low.

@Demosthenes limited resources in terms of fixed nitrogen or nutrients isn't really equivocal.. these are limits in concentration, not overall quantity. There is more than enough total nitrogen/nutrients for everyone 2000 years ago in terms of total nitrogen/nutrients across the planet.. the issue is that the concentration of nutrients in certain foods are so low that it would take too much effort for an individual to get those nutrients balanced with the correct amount of energy...

In other words the shortage of the types of resources youa re talking about is not a shortage that comes from competition pressures, therefore isnt relevant to the discussion.

@zensaiyuki

If your talking about a single intelligent species that exists other than us, than sure..

But the point is that there must be some background rate of species.. species are constantly dieing and popping into existance. And as such needing to hit the time period that one civilization is alive is only relevant if the number of species are very low... if % of planets have species on them at any one time, some just being born, and others just dying off, there would be a hell of a lot of chatter to catch.

So really the point is not that we don't need to hope our time of existence overlaps with theirs perfectly.. the only real question is if the percentage of space occupied by intelligent species high enough to be reasonable detectable. Even if a small fraction of planets had life on them, like one in a million, we would still have more than enough chatter to hear. Which means species that are intellectually advanced enough must be exceedingly rare, that poses a problem

@2ck

@zensaiyuki

Well yes and no.. It certainly would make it harder to pick out a single signal, particularly if its some wifi router on a persons desk, and see its bit-for bit transmission. But two important facts related to that..

1) if we are talking about intentional communication where each person aims a dish at the other and beams out at a reasonable but high power, than those distances are entierly workable in terms of getting a usable signal out

2) we dont need to detect individual signals to be able to determine intelligent signals are talking. If there is a whole region of space where some portion of the planets are all transmitting unintentional EM similar to earth, then while we wouldnt be able to decipher any one signal we **would** still be able to detect that signals from intelligent life is being produced.

The universe doesnt just have a flat floor. It has very specific characteristics that are the aggregate of all the frequencies we expect to hear in the universe in terms of EM. signals from intelligent life would look like a bump in the power spectrum of the expected noise that couldn't be explained by aggregate natural source.

@2ck

@zensaiyuki

Why would you say its low? We would see a bump in spectral emissions not correlating to any of the normal spectral emissions we see. If there was a degreed of EM chatter in that region then we would notice it just fine.

Moreover its also fairly useful for us, albeit it less so.. 5 years to send a letter home might be quite annoying, but I think would still be done. Especially if we are talking about life with long life spanes or in the case of cryogenics where that time span might not be as significant as it would be for us.

@2ck

So two weeks working on this article about Circuit Duals and Magnetic Circuits and it is finally finished and published! Check it out!

Its about mathematical duals and how they relate to electric circuits. I cover several common circuits as duals and how to calculate duals. Bu I also describe a rarely known type of circuit dual called a magnetic circuit that uses the magnetic field instead of an electric field to do all the things an electric circuit can do and explain magnetic inductors and capacitors. It's pretty cool stuff, I even touch on how you can extract energy from the magnetic field of a permanent magnet to power a magnetic circuit (or an electric circuit for that matter.

jeffreyfreeman.me/an-indepth-l

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@Demosthenes your assuming a persons needs are just food and not quality of life though...

People 400 years ago had lots and lots of kids. The reason is because land (a resource) was effecively infinite back then.. more kids means more farm land you can plow, means more resources...

Today resources are scarce, you cant just pop out a kid and give him his own plot of land to feed himself. Now you have to complete for the competitively priced food at the grocery store and most people have neither the means or access to any resources to feed 15 kids without making their life worse... a few hundred years ago having kids didnt thin out your resources though or make your life worse, there was always more land.

@zensaiyuki

Not really true at all. The average distance between stars in the inner region of our galaxy, which is typical of other galaxies is one light-week. the number of stars you can reach per distance grows at an exponential rate.

The number of stars you would be able to communicate with that is just a few weeks round trip for a message is absolutely huge. Messages on that time scale are entierly useful in space for updating your HQ, talking to family and friends, etc.. Its just closer to mailing a letter than making a phone call is all.

@2ck

@Demosthenes Exactly, but thats just it, we **are** being stopped by carrying capacity, we just arent there yet.

Again taking the USA as an example, most people cant afford to have 15 children , two kids would be a financial struggle for most people. You cant just send them out to forage and your good.

While there are certainlys ome well to do people who are having far fewer kids than they otherwise could support, there are others who have quite a few. The truth is, however, there are a lot of people out there getting abortions solely based on the fact that they couldnt support their kids if they didnt.

@2ck

The main argument of the OP is that life never reaches the point of their evolution to become interstellar, or to give off much in the way of EM we can detect in general, because the time between a species advances enough to both need and utilize EM is shortly before the point a species is advanced enough that it kills itself off as well.

@zensaiyuki

Yes there very well may be a next-level superior form of communication. the claim here isnt that such form exists, only that we know enough about physics to know that any such form of communication is far far beyond our current level of technology.

So regardless even if species existed that advanced far enough to utilize such a form of communication they would have had to have spend a very long time in the part of their evolution where they were using EM waves first. Which would mean if the universe is filled with intelligent life there would still be a large amount of EM chatter to detect.

@2ck

@Demosthenes Whether complete industrialization is needed or not is the point.

The fundamental fact remains we dont see nations trending towards 0% or below, almost ever (unless there is disease or famine, and then only temporarily).. We see all nations that have leveled off at all follow the same trend in almost all cases.. The stabilize a few percentage points in the positive and stay there with no additional downward trend.

@zensaiyuki

It is not predicated at all that it would take the same course as humans. It only makes two assumptions.

1) the life travels beyond its own planet, or even globally on its own planet

2) it is intelligent to use the most effective communication accessible to it as it does, which will be EM atleast until it reaches levels of technology far far beyond our own.

@2ck

@zensaiyuki

It may be insufficient in the sense that it represents a very long latency, and thus quite troublesome.. but it is more sufficient than any other communication.

There is a reason we are talking to satellites we sent out past pluto in EM and not any other form of communication.

@2ck

@Demosthenes I'm talking global as well, I am uSa as an example because you must understand the global rate is the result of the composite across the various individuals nations.

I am trying to explain why the expected result, based on nations that have already "leveled off" is that the growth rate will not go into the negative and is not headed there... individual nations follow the trend of hitting huge spike during industrialization, and then decreasing and hovering for an extended period at positive growth rate with no further trend downward past 0.. since the individuals nations all show the same trend, then one would infer the global rates would follow the same trend, and so far have.

@zensaiyuki

For non-advanced civilizations that makes fine sense. but once you reach a certain level of advancement, and we are talking interstellar at this point, fast, long distance communication becomes a requirement. Takes too long to just fly tot he next moon.

@2ck

@2ck Whale-like species are not intellectually advanced, if they were they wouldnt be communication through low-frequency vibrations alone and would employ EM.

Low frequency ocean communication is far inferior to EM for several reasons.

1) it has extremely low temporal resolution. Therefore can only communicate very small amounts of information. Nothing even approaching reasonable data rates for communication could be achieved

2) it only works when the ocean conditions are just right. Most of the time at any given moment a whale is completely unable to communicate globally using this method. It is only when conditions are just right that global windows open up.

Etcetera.

The other idea of chemical communication through roots would likewise be limited in all likelihood. It would effectively be a chemical mesh network which current theory already tells us can not work in global, public, high speed, communications network due to some fundamental limitations.

As for not needing global communication. Sure that could work for a species. But would be invalid if we are talking about any species capable of interstellar travel, or even travel across their own planet. Which is exactly the type of species we are talking about.

@Demosthenes Thats not actually true, though often argued. From 1930 to today the US growth rate has consistently wobbled both up and down with no apparent trend in either direction. Prior to 1930's it has consistently went up, we see the same trend in most first world countries no particular trend int he growth rate decreasing but with it staying at relatively constant levels with wobble.

The reason for the misconception in data is because industrialization causes a signficaint explosion in population rates which then stop their upward trend but level off at a positive growth rate.

In short we remain steadily at annualized 1% - 2% growth which is not a trend towards leveling off population growth (which is the integral of that)

@2ck Because EM waves move at light speed and there is no form of communication equally as useful that would be accessible to most developing species.

How else would you propose they communicate long distance that wouldnt be far beyond the initial levels of science a species would develop?

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