No I asked for nothing of the kind, and specifically chose my words to make that clear... I asked for a written paper, one that is open to criticism. I do not care if its published in a journal or a blog.
No worries, I didnt take it as an attack. I side with your sentiments, just pointing out studies cost money to make so someone has to pay for it somehow.
You might be able to find some studies out there that would estimate closer to 30%, there is certainly some variability in the numbers.. But no, 15% is the most commonly cited figure.
Here are two different sources bot of which confirm the 15% figure I cited:
Pelczar MJ, Chan EC, Noel RK (2010). Microbiology: Application Based Approach. p. 656. ISBN 978-0-07-015147-5. Archived from the original on 16 May 2016.
La Fayette Cecil R, Goldman L, Schafer AI (2012). Goldman's Cecil Medicine, Expert Consult Premium Edition (24 ed.). Elsevier Health Sciences. p. 2103. ISBN 978-1-4377-1604-7. Archived from the original on 4 May 2016.
Not ignoring your attempts at discussion. Though i do know from past discussion you are incapable of being level headed and mature. So I put less value in engaging you to some degree for sure.
The aggregator isnt the one getting 100% of that money. They have to pay back to the journal, which has to pay its peer-reviewers, editors, and authors.
"appeals to authority".. nothing i just said implies any authority.. you should really learn what that means.
Can you show me the paper you wrote that demonstrates those numbers and what criticisms it has drawn from others who had a chance to review your theories?
Which goal posts did I set exactly? I dont recall ever stating anything about eradication.
its not meaningless, it just serves a different purpose that transmissibility.
Being effective against symptoms means you probably wont die and getting the virus will be non consequential. If the vast majority of people are all vaccinated that means having the vaccine will significantly reduce death rates even if it doesn't reduce transmissibility.
If you want to study the vaccines ability to reduce transmissibility that is a different measure and useful in different ways. Namely, if measuring the likelihood of eradication, which would be nice, but not entirely necessary to see some level of success.
True but they have to pay for their overhead costs somehow. Want to see more open-access papers, push for more tax-payer funded research (which often means open-access).
Usually the people complaining about paywalls are the same people who think scientific studies should be privately funded.
I can tell you that when I had reviewed it last I had to go through a paywall.
thats fine, I cant change the unfortunate paywall system research uses to fund itself. But yes the evidence is there.
Hint: I do
let me know if you need me to dig up the peer-reviewed study this article references.
Yea most varients are too new to have enough data to say much about it. Mostly educated guessing... that said with proper studies and more time to do them we can get accurate values for transmissibility.
Two seperate topics here.. 1) the discussion around how likely and common it will be for the CV to circumvent vaccines and 2) what procedure saves the most lives when there is an outbreak.
To #1, we should be pretty good. Its always a crap shoot but even against current variants like the delta variant the vaccine efficacy is still very higher (88% - 93%). so in reality people are over reacting over it. As long as people are getting vaccinated they are pretty safe
As for #2, lockdowns were never an effective solution even before it mutated. We had contagion guidelines in place long before CV and while quarantine was a part of it, that only carried so far as to when the virus is in a isolated geographic location. All traditional advice when it comes to contagion suggests that once a virus is out into the wild that lockdowns cause greater loss of life and are not effective at reducing the total long term body count.
So considering lockdown as a viable solution has never been a good idea.
Depends.. testing on a large scale doesnt really sequence the genome every single time. so yea, in that sense your right, we dont really test on a global and massive scale the mutation of every blood sample.
But we do have accurate ways to test mutations and we apply this by sampling smaller populations since thats the only way we could afford to do it.
Thankfully sampling smaller populations and inferring the rate on the whole population, when done correctly, can be fairly accurate.
Actually coronavirus and all RNA viruses mutate **faster** than DNA viruses.. its just that recombination isnt considered a mutation so DNA viruses **adapt** quicker without relying on mutations (as in novel genes)
Depends what you call mutation. Influenza is a DNA based virus. It doesnt mutate in the usual sense of the word, it undergoes recombination. Coronavirus is an RNA based virus so it cant really undergo recombination efficiently so it will mutate much more slowly.
Jeffrey Phillips Freeman
Innovator & Entrepreneur in Machine Learning, Evolutionary Computing & Big Data. Avid SCUBA diver, Open-source developer, HAM radio operator, astrophotographer, and anything nerdy.
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