🎓 Dr. Freemo 🇳🇱 @freemo@social.cleverlibre.org

@hansw@mastodon.social ahh I see... While I do support nexit and the abolishment of the EU it is **not** for the reason of wanting foreigners out, in fact I think generally having policies that make it easier for foreigners to immigrate into a country is far better for the health of the country than keeping them out. so I would agree with you, those motivated to change the alw specifically witht he intent of keeping foreigners out are not doing themselves or society any favors.

@matrix Making fun of something someone likes jut because children happen to like it is so pathetic. I wish more adults liked shit kids were into, maybe they would be more pleasant to deal with if they did.

@hansw@mastodon.social Im not sure which gap that right wing people mention to which you are referring. Can you elaborate?

@hansw@mastodon.social I agree, identity politics as a whole is getting old, tiring, and dragging us down.

@2ck that is fair, though there is still a valid point there about the fact that european colonial history tends to be the focus while the fact that all other history at the time was no different.

Yup the whole "white people were the oppressors throughout history" nonsense is getting old, and not at all in line with history...

#history #science

@robryk

> Do you know of anyone trying to compare such risks against risks of delaying?

I do not, and to be fair the things I posted arent really assessing the risks at all. the issue here is "this is alll a big unknown since we havent done the proper tests. So we dont KNOW the risks, could be massively deadly could be perfectly safe".."

the issue is no one can assess anything, we dont have the data to assess safety. Its literally a random drug someone cooked up, tested on a handful of people, seemed to work sorta ok over the course of a few months, and now they want to give to the world. We are so blind on this one no one can do any real risk assesment of any kind, that IS the risk, the lack of being able to assess the risks.

> If we assume a 1% chance of contracting Covid-19 in half a year, 0.1% infection mortality rate, and 50% effectiveness of the vaccine, the vaccination removes a 5*10^{-6} risk of death over a half a year.

Except those numbers are based on completely fictious numbers with no basis in reality... thats the problem, we have no actual numbers we can stick in to create math like that, its far too soon to know anything in the way of numbers.

> Or maybe of a reason why doing it in these terms is not useful?

I think there are plenty of explanation why its not useful the ones I already linked do exactly that.. .we havent done the safety studies, we dont know anything, and the potential risks like ADE can be devastating.

Imagine a worst case ADE scenario, for example... in a year after the immune system has settled and everyone is in a state where theya re on long-term antibodies rather than short, now everyone getting COVID all of a sudden starts dying at 10x the rate as before due to ADE.. what was meant as a vaccine has now turned the disease into a far more lethal killer (basically how ADE plays out)... while we dont have the data to know this will be so, and we are completely blind as to its possibilities, the fact is, that is one worst case that could be absolutely horrific if it plays out.

There is a reason we **never** release drugs on a fast tracked plan of this scale, particularly vaccines.. you cant be completely blind to long term effects and just tack a crap shoot on it, i dont care how bad the disease is.

@Science

@Science

Lets take a quick look at what experts have been saying about COVID vaccines throughout their development:

http://www.icmra.info/drupal/covid-19/statement_on_continuation_of_vaccine_trials

and

https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/news/global-regulators-urge-continuation-covid-19-vaccine-trials-longer-term-safety-efficacy-follow

"EMA has endorsed a statement by the International Coalition of Medicines Regulatory Authorities (ICMRA) that urges all stakeholders, including vaccines researchers and investigators, academia, regulators and the pharmaceutical industry, to continue COVID-19 vaccine trials"

"This can provide important additional and more precise information on longer-term safety and efficacy of a vaccine against COVID-19."

"The development of a joint statement on continuation of vaccine trials followed a series of meetings and discussions among ICMRA members on regulatory requirements to enable rapid assessment and authorisation of vaccines against COVID-19."

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7291183/

" To shorten the time and for the larger interest of humanity, some routine yet essetial processes like animal trials are bypassed in the process of development of vaccine and drug development."

"Moreover, agencies like WHO and FDA have already given a green signal for clinical trials of vaccines bypassing the regular process of animal trials."

"the decision of bypassing the animal model needs to be taken with utmost caution. "

"Further, saving time should not cost a large number of human lives as a failure of the drug/vaccine could have devastating consequences."

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2766651

" Operation Warp Speed, the vaccine development project announced by President Trump, has advocated for a vaccine to be made available in the US by the beginning of 2021.1 But for scientists and physicians, the term “warp speed” should trigger concern."

"But what cannot and must not be allowed is for desperation to result in the suspension of scientific principles and ethical research values. Physicians should not administer inadequately vetted vaccines; researchers should not endorse them without sufficient data. The scientific community has only one chance at winning public acceptance of a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. The likelihood of achieving that goal will depend on convincing evidence of vaccine safety and efficacy."

https://www.chemistryworld.com/news/what-are-the-risks-of-fast-tracking-a-covid-19-vaccine/4012130.article

"The accelerated speed of development has public health experts concerned that vaccines might be approved with incomplete data and analysis." (yup I'm one of them)

"At least one candidate has skipped animal testing, for example."

"The concern intensifies when no vaccine against a coronavirus has ever been approved before, while many of the vaccine platforms in development against Covid-19 are unproven new technologies. ‘Developing a vaccine in about a year is unprecedented,’ says Byram Bridle, a viral immunologist at the University of Guelph in Canada, who has received Covid-focused funding to develop a new vaccine platform. ‘As a scientist with expertise in the field I am personally concerned that conducting science too fast could risk compromising the rigour needed to properly assess vaccines. A vaccine that is ineffective and/or unsafe will not be useful.’"

"Among the top concerns is the potential that a fast-tracked vaccine will have unintended side-effects. No vaccine is 100% safe, but if a billion people are vaccinated, a one in 10,000 serious adverse event will affect 100,000 of those people."

"In May, it was revealed that four out of 45 people in Moderna’s Phase 1 vaccine trial experienced ‘medically significant’ adverse events."

"One potential adverse event is antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE), a type of immune reaction where vaccination makes subsequent exposure to the virus more dangerous. "

"According to Bridle: ‘There is definitely a risk of ADE; how much of a risk cannot be stated with any certainty though.’ Yet the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases’ (NIAID) Vaccine Research Centre, which is collaborating on Moderna’s vaccine, has downplayed the possibility of ADE in a Covid-19 vaccine.

#COVID #Coronavirus #COVID19 #Vaccine #COVIDVaccine #Corona #CoronaVaccine #medical #medicine #biology

@blinkwarp What exactly counts as personal care here?

@Amking Alright please do.

Feel free to use the qoto group server, you dont need to have your main account on qoto to use it:

https://groups.qoto.org

If you want it to be on the fediverse, and to be moderated, its your only option right now. There are unmoderated options though but you can't "own" or have any say in such a group. So it isnt really what most people think of when they think of groups.

@Amking I might be willing to be a fly on the wall for that. Where at though, as far as I know the qoto group server is the only moderated group server on the fediverse that is public right now... will it be there or you have somewhere else in mind?

@math

A wonderful visualization of the often unknown Quaternions (a generalization of complex numbers into 4 dimensions).

https://youtu.be/d4EgbgTm0Bg

#Math #Mathematics #Science

@funny

How 2020 could have went but apparently our leaders can't get along...

https://youtu.be/SuhOWJjQrZw

#2020 #Trump #Biden #USPol #Funny #humor #humour #joke #jokes #meme

@StoneLi Sorry i couldnt be more help, if you can dig up mroe information i'd be happy to try to look into it.

@StoneLi but your seeing it in a third-party app and not from the mastodon website itself... i really have no idea what the error message means ive never seen anything like it.. Whoever wrote the app your using would have to atleast explain the meaning of the error if i am to investigate what could be up.

@StoneLi If your getting it from twitter I probably cant be much help.. sounds like maybe you misconfigured the client maybe?

@StoneLi Where are you seeing this exactly?

@lcvqoto

I personally use more rigorously compiled data that a different set of scientists compiled from 15 reliable sources and aggregated and scrubbed. The links I provided were just to help find a public data source that shows similar trends. If you are saying its a 5 year rolling average I may have missed that.

Others from the thread have contributed other data sources and visualizations as well that also support the assertions I made, here is an alternative one for you that also shows a significant spike in 2020:

https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

@Atlas