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@s8n

Nope wrong again. The preliminary numbers were not used to dictate lockdowns, though im sure the media presented them and might have made it seem that way.

The lockdowns were initially agreed upon do to overcapacity of ICUs and a lack of ventilators going around.

Now it is true that you can use preliminary numbers to infer things, but it doesnt mean you count them as actual covid deaths. What we look at is what % of people who get the vaccine die within 14 days (even if it isnt because of the vaccine). If the virus is causing deaths, even if its just a fraction of those in the preliminary numbers, then we would see a statistical rise in those numbers, similarly we can apply the same logic to vaccines.

So while they dont represent the count of deaths they can certainly be used to infer a relative increase or decrease in death **if** taken relative to itself at an earlier time before some event being tested for.

@skells

@s8n

Wrong, deaths that happen after COVID infections are not necceseraly considered COVID deaths.

You are probably considering the CDC's preliminary numbers, whicha re all people who died while infected with covid at all, vs its final numbers (which lag by a few months) that indicate people who die of COVID specifically.

Often the media, as they do tend to dial the fear up, use the preliminary numbers as a scare tactic without being honest about what they mean.

Long and short of it, despite the misinformation in the general public the actual statistical data does **not** work the way you just described.

@skells

@valleyforge In fact I'd go so far as to say that westerns arent just a very specific genre, I'd say they are more specific than most genres.

Take Sci-fy as a genre.. it includes pretty much anything in the future. Thats way more broad then westers which define not just that it be non-fiction, but a location, time period, and specific character types (like cowboys). Most genres tend to be equally vague except westerns.

@valleyforge Its not setting and dressing.. As I said it is also time period, the presents of cowboys, and a general requirement to be non-fictional. It very much defines every aspect of the genre, not just the location.

@valleyforge Western movies arent about the location. Its about location, time, and style. A western movie is set during a specific time period when America was new (1800s usually), focuses on west, and generally must be period factual and usually contain cowboys. For example back to the future 3 has most elements of a western but has strong fiction/fantasy elements and as such isnt considered a western.

@skells

"if death counts as permanently injured then several thousand at least seem to have been permanently injured."

Wrong, no one has died of swelling of the heart and even more generally thousands have not died due to covid. Please stop making up shit to convince yourself your right.

VARES is NOT an indication of who has what reaction to the vaccine. It is a report of **all** incidents within 14 days of a vaccination including those **known** to be unrelated to the vaccine. Doctors are required by law to report to VARES any medical condition, including those not related to the vaccine, that occur within 14 days of taking the vaccine.

See this right here is you proving exactly why your inability to understand the basic facts int he quiz make you incapable of drawing conclusions. You dont even understand things like what the VARES numbers mean.

So yes, in this very conversation you have proven, quite well, why you are incapable of making assertions about COVId if you cant even pass the basic test.

@bonifartius

I was mixing it up with the Sinopharm/Sinovac which is the traditional vaccine. Sadly you may not have access to it though if you are in the USA.

@swiley @GodfreyHendrix

@skells 0 people have died of swelling of the heart from a covid vaccine, 0 people have been perminantly injured from it. Full stop.

Yes a few (40 per million) have mild swelling of the heart and survive just fine. But 40 per million is not anything even close to "common", thats a fraction of a fraction of a percent (0.004%).

And the fact that your sitting here calling something that has caused no harm to anyone and has a 0.004% incident as "common" suggests that, in fact, you **are** in capable of looking up numbers of clinical outcomes and making decisions on it.

@skells Except they arent saying simple things like "A heart attack from a vaccine is a bad outcome".. they are saying things that actually do require understanding like "There is a good chance you will get a heart attack from the vaccine"... or "heart attacks from the vaccine are common" neither of which is true and requires some understanding of the data to assert about.

@anonymoose

This has nothing to do with administration/moderation. He isnt at risk of being booted. The fact he has been reported and I didnt act on the reports says enough.

But yes, if someone is going to stand up and act like they are well researched ont he topic and say something as uninformed as suggesting the VARES report indicates vaccine deaths, then yea, thats a pretty dumb thing to say and reflects that that person has no understanding of even the basics on the topic.

The fact that I respect people as generally intelligent and then they go off and say things that about 30 seconds of research could have easily disproven, and they tend to repeat it multiple times is troubling.

I believe people have the right to think and say what they want. But when they say things that has all the idiocy of a flat-earther then I will call them out on it, it is reserved for extreme cases. Now how they respond means everything. If they spend that 30 seconds to research and realize they were wrong on obvious facts then no respect lost. If they double down and keep repeating easily disproven things, then respect loss. I wont hide, and have never hid, my opinion of when people cross that line. In the end people get a lot of slack its just people are getting dumber by the day with all the misinformation floating around.

@icedquinn @swiley

@bonifartius

Right like I said J&J is a traditional vaccine and not an mRNA vaccine. Inactivated viral vectors are exactly what traditional vaccines are.

@swiley @GodfreyHendrix

@bonifartius
Umm we have a classic vaccine in america. The J&J vaccine is a classic vaccine.
@swiley @GodfreyHendrix

@icedquinn

If you actually did t-testing correctly, sure. You did not. For starters you didnt take samples of vaccinated and non-vaccinated groups, which would be needed to do a t-test properly.

Again you just applied a t-test with no understanding of how to apply a t-test, so you will only get nonsense numbers with your particular approach. You must compare equivelant samples seperated out by vaccinated vs non-vaccinated (which indirectly is exactly what the granger causality test does by sampling pre-vaccination earlier in time vs post-vaccination later in time)

@swiley

@icedquinn

What you did does not constitute population testing, so moot point.

@swiley

@icedquinn

If you arent comparing a state to itself post vaccine and pre vaccine then you arent doing anything credible. Correlation is not causation, thats statistics 101, there is a reason we have specific tests for causation.The way your doing it is simply going to give you nonsense data.

@swiley

@icedquinn

You should have measured granger causation, not correlation (which does not demonstrate statistical causation). To do that you would have to look at how the deathrate changed relative to a states pre-vaccination death rate vs its post-vaccination death rate. If you dont do that you are not getting good data.

@swiley

@icedquinn

I know your smarter than that, not only did I not ignore it, I already addressed it.

VAREs does **not** report COVID related deaths. It is required by law **all** deaths that occur within 14 days of a vaccination, even if it is known not to be related to COVID, must be reported on VARES. This is also a policy change that occured around the time of COVID.

@swiley

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