Ian Kenway @iankenway@social.cleverlibre.org

705 cases today #Covid19Cymru. That's good, if correct.
34 deaths looks bad but is not a surprise, after yesterday's obviously incorrect 2.
I'm a bit happier now than I have been with recent figures. I hope they're real.
Due to a power outage, I can't produce graphs until later.

Local authorities today. Ceredigion still on 12, a couple of 0s (Conwy & Môn), RhCT still worst on 89, Merthyr showing huge improvement.

Today's #Covid19Cymru figures from Public Health Wales are good news, but only just. This follows yesterday's figures, which, it was suggested (though I saw no official announcement - why not PublicHealthWales?) were artificially high due to a backlog.

892 cases today
7-day average 884.9
Down just 5.5 from yesterday
Exactly 1 week from the end of lockdown, people infected last Monday won't all be showing yet in these figures (though some will). I fear this is going to go up again soon.
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#Ceredigion is at 12 today, bringing the 7-day average down to 8 (the high of 46 drops out), but also suggests the outbreak was not fully contained. Ceredigion people are used to not worrying too much I think; we need to change gear.

Just 2 deaths were recorded today. These are weekend figures, and are normally lower, but that's unusually low. I would be surprised if that's a true reflection of the situation, though it's good to see these numbers coming down.
7-day average: 24.0 (down 0.86)
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'A little less' than one in 100 in Wales have Covid, according to ONS chief. https://nation.cymru/news/a-little-less-than-one-in-100-in-wales-have-covid-according-to-ons-chief/

Cool heads and detailed arguments must win out if the independence movement is to succeed. https://nation.cymru/opinion/cool-heads-and-detailed-arguments-must-win-out-if-the-independence-movement-is-to-succeed/

Senedd committees slam Westminster over Brexit 'power grab' bill. https://nation.cymru/news/senedd-committees-slam-westminster-over-brexit-power-grab-bill/

Today's #Covid19Cymru case figures from PHW look like good news again. 797 cases reported today brings the 7-day average down 79 to 810. Friday usually sees the highest figure of the week, so it's particularly pleasing to see drop again today (cf yesterday 867).
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We should be around the peak for deaths now. Before lockdown, I predicted it for the end of this week, and also the average in the upper 20s. Today's 29 deaths takes the 7-day average up to 27; that average is obviously centred on last Tuesday so could go a little higher yet.
No local authorities are in triple figures again, but only 2 make single figures (Ceredigion is up again at 13). RhCT regains worst spot at 86, but that represents significant progress for them.
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All Wales prevention zone declared to stop the spread of bird flu after three cases in England - Nation.Cymru https://nation.cymru/news/all-wales-prevention-zone-declared-to-stop-the-spread-of-bird-flu-after-three-cases-in-england/

I felt slightly uneasy when I saw today's #Covud19Cymru case figure - 867. It's higher than the average of the past 2, 3, 4 or 5 days. But the 7-day average is down, and it seems that the number of cases tends to rise towards the end of the week
(yesterday's figure was artificially high due to some data being carried over from Tuesday).
Given that, it's probably OK, but not as good as I hoped.
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If schools going back last week has had a -ve effect, it's now that we'd expect to be seeing it.
7-day average: 889 down 58.

34 deaths were reported today, taking the 7-day average up 0.57 to 24.71.
I am expecting we'll see the peak in deaths over the next few days, so hopefully we won't go much (any) higher.
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It's notable that for the first time in a very long time, nowhere is in triple figures. The highest is Neath Port Talbot on 98.

For some reason, these figures were late being published today.

#Covid19Cymru