Ian Kenway @iankenway@social.cleverlibre.org

#Ceredigion has 2 cases for the second consecutive day. Once again these are in different places to the previous day, suggesting to me that they are cases brought in from outside the county (disclaimer: I'm not an epidemiologist).
https://portalcovidcymru.co.uk/map.html

7-day average: 3.71 - DOWN 0.43

Particularly worthy of mention today is Merthyr Tudful, which reports zero cases. Ceredigion shares second place with Sir Benfro, on 2.

[Data table screenshot from LA tab at https://public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary]

4/4

Just how does public money end up in the pockets of Cummings' friends? - https://www.crowdjustice.com/case/a-river-to-my-people/ one of the few groups trying to hold UK gov to account; really needs some support (FWIW I've given multiple times to the org)

Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland should get out of the “corrupt, dysfunctional, chaotic” UK as soon as possible, according to environmentalist and author George Monbiot.

https://nation.cymru/news/monbiot-wales-should-escape-chaotic-dyfunctional-corrupt-uk-as-soon-as-possible/

The rewatch was worth it...

“I went to the woods because I wished to live deliberately, to front only the essential facts of life, and see if I could not learn what it had to teach, and not, when I came to die, discover that I had not lived. I did not wish to live what was not life, living is so dear; nor did I wish to practise resignation, unless it was quite necessary. I wanted to live deep and suck out all the marrow of life, to live so sturdily and Spartan-like as to put to rout all that was not life, to cut a broad swath and shave close, to drive life into a corner, and reduce it to its lowest terms...”

You shall no longer take things at second or third hand, nor look through the eyes of the dead, nor feed on the spectres in books,

You shall not look through my eyes either, nor take things from me,

You shall listen to all sides and filter them from yourself.

-- Walt Whitman, Song of myself, 1892

#english #poem #poetry

Businesses in south-east of England got 1,000 times more investment than Wales in UK Gov scheme - Nation.Cymru https://nation.cymru/news/businesses-in-south-east-of-england-got-1000-times-more-investment-than-wales-in-uk-gov-scheme/

Today's #Covid19Cymru headlines:
Cases fall to their lowest since the beginning of October. R also falls. Deaths down. Positivity down. Today is excellent news all round.

I had thought that my model's prediction for today - 342 - was optimistic. But the figure has come in slightly under that. The fact that it is in line with my prediction gives me confidence that it's genuine.
1/4

It's likely that it's a lower figure than usual because Wednesday's figures likely represent weekend testing events, but the 7-day average trend is still on its way down.
7-day average: 480 - DOWN 19

R (estimate): 0.86 - DOWN 0.02
It's good to see this falling, as I had believed we were settling in the 0.9 area. Today could be a blip though!

The positivity, at 8.5% the third lowest for many months, is also indicative of a genuine continuing reduction in cases.
2/4

21 deaths were recorded. This is significantly down on a day when we expect to see a post-weekend rebound. Maybe we'll see it tomorrow. But for now, this too is relatively good news.; lowest average since 16th December.
7-day average: 28.57 - DOWN 4.14

Let's put that into context though: this is only the 3rd day since the last peak that the average deaths has fallen below the PEAK of cases in the first wave (31.1 on Easter Sunday, 12/4).
3/4

#Ceredigion has just 2 cases today, being in top position in Cymru for number of cases, and (at 2.8) in cases per 100,000, though Denbighshire (at 3 cases, 3.1 per 100K) runs a close second.
7-day average: 4.14 - DOWN 0.57

The two cases in Ceredigion are:
1: Aberystwyth North
1: Aberteifi & Aberporth
https://portalcovidcymru.co.uk/map.html

[Screenshot of data: credit PHW web site https://public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary]
4/4

The fact that there were 675 cases therefore shouldn't have surprised me. It's still down on last Saturday (737), but I had assumed that day was a "catch-up" after the bad weather earlier that week.
7-day average: 560 - DOWN 9

R (estimate): 0.90 - DOWN 0.02
The bad weather affected figures (if indeed that was the reason) of late January are dropping out of the calculation, so despite cases being higher than expected, R goes down.
2/6

And despite all this, there is one piece of data which has me flummoxed, and that is the positivity. At just 7.5%, this is a whole 1.8 %age points lower than we've seen since way back last year. So, a lot of test results have come through today.

Not merely enough to push the case figures up, but enough to do that despite ~25% fewer of them being positive than we've been seeing of late. (I don't separately record the number of tests, but it's a simple equation: positives * (100/positivity)).
3/6