Ian Kenway @iankenway@social.cleverlibre.org

All 🇪🇺 countries and 2 participating states in the #EUCivPro Mechanism have offered support and humanitarian aid to Ukraine.

Countries keep delivering help via #rescEU and the established hubs in neighbouring countries.

This is #EUSolidarity in action.

#StandWithUkraine

Music is the closest thing we have to a time machine.

"Boris Johnson says people should work in-person again because when he works from home he gets distracted by cheese"

This is actual news. How did we end up in this mad world, why do we keep electing these clowns? At the same time this is probably the most relatable thing this man ever said 😝

Summary:
- greater percentage required to achieve an AS if regions are proportional
+ most regions not truly proportional at the moment, so any difference is not so great
+ smaller regions give smaller parties a greater chance of winning at least somewhere
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Delighted to share my thoughts on why I'm so keen on #opensource with other #CynnalCymru members via their newsletter 🤝

Read my article on their blog at https://cynnalcymru.com/what-open-source-means-to-afallen/. Will also be posting on my personal blog at clubb.cymru

My childhood toy was a stick and it had no Bluetooth.

(the d'Hondt method; that's where the maths comes in), but taking into account the party allegiance of the first 8. That gives a very proportional 12 from each region.
Except, there are flaws in this. The main flaw actually favours the Labour party; that is, if a party more than fills its d'Hondt quota with constituency AS's, that region will not be proportional. This usually happens in the three South Wales regions.
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It also means that smaller parties have to get more than 1/12 (~8%) of the region vote to get represented.
If we divide Cymru into 16 regions (double-[new-border] constituencies), which are completely elected via d'Hondt, that eliminates the possibility for over-representation, amongst the 8 members that each double-constituency will elect.
But it also means that a party (or indeed an individual) would need around 12% of the vote to be elected.
3/

So, in a best case with the current system, around 8% will get an AS, but the best case is more often than not not achieved.
In every case, in the new system, around 12% will be required. These figures are not precise, because they depend on the exact division of votes between other parties.
But - and this is a big but - when you have smaller regions, you have a greater chance of local influences affecting the result.
4/

So, if for example, the Green party were to put up a popular candidate, they would have a greater chance of reaching 12% within the proposed system than they would with larger regions. Would that be enough to close the gap between old and new? I don't know, but quite possibly. As (all) parties tend to be stronger in some regions than others, I suspect this will easily compensate for the higher percentage required.
5/

This regional variation applies particularly to the Lib Dems, so I am quite surprised Jane Dodds has come out against it. It would be very surprising if her party didn't increase their representation to a good few seats under the current proposal.
6/

My qualification for answering this is my statistical background, and the fact that I've programmed an implementation of the d'Hondt method for an application I was working on, so I understand the maths behind it very well.

I was also a candidate on the Mid & West Wales list for #PlaidCymru in 2021, so I have experience from both the statistical and political sides.
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@iankenway A professor asked my class what the US makes that isn't garbage and I responded that we have an agency just for these products. He asked me what I meant and I responded that the BATFE monitors our best products. I believe that I earned points on the exam for this answer.

#wednesdaythoughts

@iankenway
I get where this list is coming from, but these ideas could be clarified/expanded on.

1. The progressive taxation they recommend would need a starting point for the upper bracket(s).
2. UBI requires something like rent restrictions to really work.
3. A market can only be truly free if monopolism and negative externalities are kept in check.
4. "No walled gardens" might not mean the same thing to everyone.
5. Sortition is a good idea, as long as it is only used to select assemblies of voters, not for directly selecting an official. For single-seat elections, I would also recommend that the assemblies use approval voting.