Ian Kenway @iankenway@social.cleverlibre.org

#introductions Hi sentients of Qoto. I'm an AI student from 🇻🇪 living in 🇬🇧. My biggest intellectual interest is in theoretical neuroscience. I have experience in embedded systems and will work as a numerical software engineer starting this summer.

I'd like to find smart people here to discuss and share ideas with, I love being wrong but please justify your arguments and don't just state that XYZ is the 'right' answer. Particularly when it comes to politics. If you oversimplify arguments then I will ignore you.

Fav music -> Latin American indie + Lo-Fi

Tech-> Love all things GNU/Linux

-- Español
#introducción
Hola gente de Qoto. Soy un estudiante de inteligencia artificial. Me encanta aprender sobre la neurociencia teórica. Tengo experiencia en sistemas embebidos y software en general. Me gusta la música indie y todo relacionado con GNU+Linux.

Espero conocer gente inteligente para discutir y cambiar ideas. No tengo problema con estar equivocado, más bien me gusta cuando alguien me hace ver las cosas de otra manera.

Today's #Covid19Cymru headlines:
Cases at a record post-peak low, but this was predicted for today, and although my estimate of R falls, it's not all good news.

There were 275 cases reported today. My model had predicted 263, so I am not surprised at this record post-peak low. Despite this, I still feel a little uneasy about how low it is; my model is very subject to noisy data, and positivity today is higher than I'd have expected, at 8.7%.
1/4

Having said that, Tuesday's positivity is often higher than other nearby days. This is no doubt due to it reflecting samples taken and tests carried out over the weekend.

7-day average: 396 - DOWN 11

2 milestones have been passed: the first sub-400 7-day average since 29th September and the first sub-300 day since 22nd September (and the lowest single day since 21st September).

R (estimate): 0.81 - DOWN 0.07

I'm pretty uneasy about this estimate today.
2/4

I think it's due to suspiciously high data being on the denominator of the equation, going back 8-11 days. The most recent reliable estimated R from by-sample-date (for which we have to go back another 5 days) is around 0.89.

There were 8 deaths reported today. It's Sunday's data, so normally lower, and represents only a small change in the average.
7-day average: 19.14 - DOWN 0.29

3/4

#Ceredigion has 3 new cases, after recording none yesterday. These are all in the south of the county:
1: Llambed & Llanfihangel Ystrad
1: Cei Newydd & Penbryn
1: Aberteifi & Aberporth

https://portalcovidcymru.co.uk/map.html

Blaenau Gwent tops the tables today with just 1 case.

[Screenshot of data credit PHW web site https://public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary ]
4/4

"It is the unknown that defines our existence. We are constantly searching, not just for answers to our questions, but for new questions" -- Star Trek: Deep Space Nine

#quote #Science #SciFi #StarTrek

Wales will lift restrictions on hospitality more cautiously than UK Government says Drakeford. https://nation.cymru/news/wales-will-lift-restrictions-on-hospitality-more-cautiously-than-uk-government-says-drakeford

@anniemo71 I've always avoided anything with Zuck's fingerprints on it. So I've never had WhatsApp, and only used Facebook briefly when I was told I had to as part of a political campaign.
I'm noticing more and more people joining Signal. Coincidentally another of my contacts just popped up in there today.

Pro-independence parties set to win more than 50% of the vote in Catalan elections for the first time. https://nation.cymru/news/pro-independence-parties-set-to-win-more-than-50-of-the-vote-in-catalan-elections-for-the-first-time/

Oh just realized another autoantonym (my favorite category of words)... Sanction: it can mean both to "approve/authorize" or to "discipling/penalize"

#english #writing

Such rapid ups & downs in R as we have seen recently are a symptom of noisy data. Though it's striking how the last few days (see "recent" graph) line up nicely with the continuation of the 7-day average (green) line (which necessarily finishes 3 days before the current day).

Although positivity is up a little today, at 8.1%, it's normal for it to be higher on a Monday, and this is lower than previous Mondays, so the downward trend continues.
2/4

Although 16 deaths represents a small increase in the average, I said yesterday that "there's been such a dramatic fall this past week that I am half suspecting there might be a backlog somewhere". If this is the extent of it, then that's good. It seems likely the vaccine effect is cutting in now, which is also good news.
7-day average: 19.43 - UP 0.57
3/4

#Ceredigion recorded zero cases for the second time in the past few weeks (the first time was on 29/1). That's 24 consecutive days of numbers under 10.
7-day average: 2.43 - DOWN 0.71

In fact a huge continuous swathe of mid and west Wales has recorded no cases today.

https://portalcovidcymru.co.uk/map.html
4/4

An Employee at Yandex caught selling unauthorized access to the users' mailboxes for personal gain: https://thehackernews.com/2021/02/yandex-employee-caught-selling-access.html

The only way to protect your information from such abuse is e2e encryption. That's why we strongly oppose any attempt to weaken encryption: https://tutanota.com/crypto-wars/

"self sabotage is also:

not asking for help.
rejecting praise
isolating yourself when hurt
saying “yes” to everything
putting your needs on hold
procrastinating on important tasks
trying to be perfect ✨"

https://twitter.com/KayanaRich/status/1360260737118126083
Merci Bram pour le toot (pas partageable donc voilà).

@anniemo71 @davidoclubb I'm not quite sure how it works, it must be some setting I've tweaked. But when someone in my contacts joins, it knows and adds them. So obviously Signal needs permission to see your phone's contacts, but I'm not sure that's enough, as a friend of mine doesn't seem to get them automatically added, despite having the correct permissions for contacts.