Ian Kenway @iankenway@social.cleverlibre.org

Today's #Covid19UK figures are released. My projection did remarkably well, predicting 2926 deaths (total) for today. The actual number is 2921.
To those people who STILL doubt that we are following the Italy curve, I say: look at the figures.
I see no way off this curve for at least a week. We will pass 10,000 deaths within the next week, and possibly as soon as 5 days' time.

I just wanted to publicly thank @khird for always being so quick with reporting SPAM when new accounts show up on our server. He is, by far, one of the biggest contributors to help me identify and get rid of spam before others need to see it.

Thanks for all your help!

Boeing 787s must be turned off and on every 51 days to prevent 'misleading data' being shown to pilots - https://www.theregister.co.uk/2020/04/02/boeing_787_power_cycle_51_days_stale_data/ i have to say that sounds suboptimal for a plane...

@iankenway I saw it earlier on The Guardian, and it's a pity. His columns were very good, well explained and practical advice always.

RIP, Jack. 😔

And so, I can only conclude, the Herd Immunity policy lives on. To me, this statement is an inadvertent admission of that. Nothing else makes sense. 6/6

The reason for this is that Hywel Dda is a more widely dispersed community, with at present a lower level of (reported) infection than other areas. It therefore will take longer to spread to the 80% (or whatever is required for that herd immunity), and it still has further to go than most other areas. 5/6

There is no doubt that some spread will continue through those who continue to work and shopping, but the more worrying to me is the second implication. For that to be true for Hywel Dda, rather than others, I can only assume they are working on the "Herd Immunity" principle.4/6

If Hywel Dda think the lockdown will not be effective, we have to ask why. Is it because the government have not locked down hard enough? For example, do they believe it can spread through going shopping or the few people who continue to work? And why in particular Hywel Dda (as opposed to other areas, which by implication would peak earlier). 3/6

If a lockdown is to be effective, it WILL cause the number of deaths per day to decrease. There is no question about that. This means the peak WILL be reached within a certain period of the lockdown being implemented (probably about 3 weeks - if reports of time to hospitalisation/death are right). 2/6