Ian Kenway @iankenway@social.cleverlibre.org

69 deaths today looks like backlogged data (I can't see an explanation in today's PHW statement).
It sends 7-day average up to 38.0: UP 9.86
I think there has been a large element of catching up this past week (following PHW computer upgrade) so true figure is likely lower.

#Ceredigion has 18 new cases, sending the 7-day average to 19.86 (UP 2.57), but similar caveats apply - there is catching up from PHW computer down time here. True figure is probably somewhat lower.

The musician who fell in love with Welsh bands, moved to Wales and learnt Welsh - Nation.Cymru https://nation.cymru/culture/the-musician-who-fell-in-love-with-welsh-bands-moved-to-wales-and-learnt-welsh/

#cymru #dysgucymraeg

20 million people in #Mumbai at risk due to #cyclones, #SeaLevelRise

The study found that the decadal increase in cyclone events had increased six times from two cyclones in 1970-1979 to 12 during 2010-19 that had impact along the Maharashtra coast.
It further warned that coastal cities with high population density and delicate infrastructure were left with no more than 10 years to act against the impacts of #ClimateChange.

https://m.hindustantimes.com/mumbai-news/20-million-people-in-mumbai-at-risk-due-to-cyclones-sea-level-rise-study/story-oShLJ45DEPFzLHtUdYUh6H.html

#ClimateCrisis #India

new article on #lowtech magazine that I'm sure will resonate with a lot of folks here:

'How and why I stopped buying new laptops'

https://solar.lowtechmagazine.com/2020/12/how-and-why-i-stopped-buying-new-laptops.html

#recycling #linux #thinkpad #laptop

Today's #Covid19Cymru figures are very much following the expected trend.
Cases are over 3000 for the first time (I exclude the day with backlogged data, which I smoothed out in my charts), at 3065.
The 7-day average is now 2697 - UP 82.
My estimate of R is now 1.12, DOWN 0.10
Hopefully this is going to turn into a trend - it looks like it might, on the graph.
Because I have used estimates to fill in the gaps caused by late data reporting, the 7-day average and my estimate of R may be incorrect.

'Enforcement powers will be used' - English police warn Welsh against travel into low-Covid area - Nation.Cymru https://nation.cymru/news/enforcement-powers-will-be-used-english-police-warn-welsh-against-travel-into-low-covid-area/

#Windfarms in #GreatBritain break record for clean power #generation | #WindPower | The Guardian

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/dec/19/windfarms-in-great-britain-break-record-for-clear-power-generation

#Environment #Renewables #RenewableEnergy #UK

Chief Medical Officer Statement on Amendments to Health Protection Regulation (December 2020) | GOV.WALES
Covid 19 WALES

"I therefore agree that Wales needs to strengthen current restrictions and I support a move to level 4 arrangements as soon as is practicably possible and by 25th of December at the latest."

https://gov.wales/chief-medical-officer-statement-amendments-health-protection-regulation-december-2020

The public banking movement, and the passage of the Public Banking Act in California, gets a shoutout in Project Censored's list of under-reported stories in 2020:

https://www.projectcensored.org/8-the-public-banking-revolution/

As well it should -- public banking deserves more attention within progressive movements across the country, along with other efforts to strengthen public ownership (e.g., municipal ISPs, utilities).

The full top 25 is here:
https://www.projectcensored.org/category/the-top-25-censored-stories-of-2019-2020/

All of Wales is currently in Alert Level 3 but.........

"Alert level 4 restrictions will apply across Wales from 6pm on 25 December with some modifications for Christmas." 👇🏼

Alert level 4: frequently asked questions | GOV.WALES https://gov.wales/alert-level-4-frequently-asked-questions

#Covid19Cymru deaths are going up, and have been for about 10 days.
Prediction time: deaths will continue to rise for about a month.
Why? Deaths lag cases by ~16 days. Cases lag infections by ~5 days.
Next lockdown in 9 days & cases will continue up until then
9+5+16=30 days.

From the point of view of hospital admissions, these will peak around a week before deaths, so around 10th January. That's a frightening thought for our health service.

PayPal has decided to start taking money from dormant accounts if they have a balance. It's a new fee called Rich Exec Needs Another Car/Boat/Mistress/House Fund. http://www.theguardian.com/money/2020/dec/12/paypal-introduces-new-fee-for-dormant-accounts

@anniemo71 Yes absolutely. It's more dangerous now than at any other time, and between now and the 27th it will only get more dangerous. We all need to minimise our risks right now.

Sad news today. I went to photograph the #tree20 liquidambar tree today as it’s right at the end of the year and so my project is almost complete. Except that it has been cut down! When I saw that it was gone, I felt devastated. It has literally been cut down in its prime. I’m not an expert and so maybe it had some disease. I couldn’t bear to photograph the void it has left behind today.

The Coltrane Circle, a #paperComputer created by John Coltrane for figuring out melodies, based on the circle of 5ths, with a few of his own innovations.

#analogComputing

https://www.openculture.com/2017/04/the-tone-circle-john-coltrane-drew-to-illustrate-the-theory-behind-his-most-famous-compositions-1967.html

Public Health Wales have admitted today that many #Covid19Cymru cases have not been recorded since 9th December. 11468 cases were recorded today. This is quite believable. Here I've put what I think are close to likely true figures for each day, alongside the recorded figures.
Reasonable?
1/4

Because this gives me something sensible to work with, with correct totals over time, and day figures which are probably close to the truth, I can plug those in to my figures instead of the (known) false ones, and get graphs which are probably not too far out.
Except - HUGE disclaimer - R is very dependent on recent data, and its order, so I wouldn't place too much trust in this right now. But this has produced quite a believable graph.
2/4