Ian Kenway @iankenway@social.cleverlibre.org

This R is not based on the usual equation, because that would have included 2 values that I think are suspect - thus giving a rise in R, which clearly is wrong for today. Instead I have used an interpolated value in my equation.

There were 8 deaths recorded. This mostly represents deaths occurring on Sunday, and weekend reporting is always low. There were also 8 reported last Sunday. Few conclusions can be drawn from this.
7-day average: 37.0 - UNCHANGED
3/4

#Ceredigion has 6 new cases, continuing the low numbers for the county. I suppose the bad news is that it's up a little though on the last 3 days. But the good news is that it very much confirms we're down in low figures now in the county.
7-day average: 8.14 - DOWN 0.43
4/4

​

Today's #Covid19Cymru headlines:
Cases still trending down well. R down. Monday is not a good day for looking at trends in deaths (weekend figures); the average edges up very slightly.
Ceredigion still looking good.

There were 872 new cases reported today. That's a little under my prediction of 915. The average falls again.
7-day average: 1013 - DOWN 66

Prediction for tomorrow: 699

R (estimate): 0.79 - DOWN 0.01

1/3

#Ceredigion has 4 new cases. That's just 8 cases in 3 days. It would be nice if they were a single cluster; unfortunately they are spread around (1 each in Aber North, Aber South, Borth and Llambed).
7-day average: 8.57 - DOWN 2.14 and the lowest since early November.
Interestingly, the positivity rate for Ceredigion, 3.3%, is down on yesterday. So although yesterday's figures only reported 2 cases, there were over twice the tests carried out this time. Arguably then, this is a better result
3/3

Global #ice loss accelerating at record rate, study finds | #Environment | The Guardian

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jan/25/global-ice-loss-accelerating-at-record-rate-study-finds

#GlobalWarming #ClimateChange #SeaIce #SeaLevel #Glaciers #PolarRegions

"Google workers across the world are coming together to form a global union alliance. The newly formed coalition, called Alpha Global, is comprised of 13 different unions representing workers in 10 countries, including the United States, United Kingdom, and Switzerland."

Some fucking good news, at last

https://www.theverge.com/2021/1/25/22243138/google-union-alphabet-workers-europe-announce-global-alliance

Former councillor banned after Facebook posts called for killing of three politicians. https://nation.cymru/news/former-councillor-banned-after-facebook-posts-called-for-killing-of-three-politicians/

#MEPs vote to add #ChannelIslands and #BritishVirginIslands to #TaxHaven #blacklist | Tax havens | The Guardian

Not before time.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/22/meps-vote-to-add-channel-and-british-virgin-islands-to-tax-haven-blacklist

#EU

Millionaire flew private plane into Welsh airfield to 'see the beach' during lockdown - Wales Online https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/anglesey-plane-coronavirus-court-raf-19666260?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=group_walescourt

Today's #Covid19Cymru headlines:
Cases at their lowest since the end of November; I'm a little suspicious of today's figure. Deaths high - looks like a "catch-up".

Cases - 801 reported today - are in fact so low that it reminds me of last Saturday, when I was suspicious of the figures. Not so low as to be impossible, but I think improbable. Fridays also tend to see the highest, or one of the highest numbers of new cases; likely because people tend to present less for tests over the weekend,
1/5

In short, all of today's figures feel suspect to me. Deaths is most probably a catch-up; the true number (at least, of those qualifying for reporting) is almost certainly lower. And the cases should probably be higher. I am not certain about this though!
Obviously yesterday's prediction of 1237 cases was way out. The prediction for tomorrow is now 1078. Higher than, or about that, and I was right in my suspicion. Significantly lower and I was probably wrong.
5/5

Quarter of known #bee #species have not been recorded since #1990 | #Bees | The Guardian

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jan/22/quarter-of-known-bee-species-have-not-been-recorded-since-1990

#Ecology #Science #Biology #Entomology #Wildlife #Pollinators #Insects

Joe Biden sends a clear message to the watching world – America’s back https://theconversation.com/joe-biden-sends-a-clear-message-to-the-watching-world-americas-back-153698?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=The%20Weekend%20Conversation%20-%201841917926&utm_content=The%20Weekend%20Conversation%20-%201841917926+CID_abbbdcf645e2eeb0e6396a695ab2b828&utm_source=campaign_monitor_uk&utm_term=all%20starts%20on%20the%20home%20front

‘Look into my eyes’: #UK #government launches hard-hitting ‘stay at home’ #advert – #video | Society | The Guardian

If only those in power hadn’t completely mishandled the situation, we might not be top of the list when it comes to number of deaths per capita per day. Workers on the front line are left to pick up the pieces and face the trauma.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/video/2021/jan/22/look-into-my-eyes-uk-government-launches-hard-hitting-stay-at-home-advert-video

#Pandemic #Covid-19

Today's #Covid19Cymru headlines:
Cases still trending down, positivity still low, deaths down.
Ceredigion records just 2 cases.

Yesterday, I predicted 1078 cases for today. There were 1079. This confirms that yesterday's 801 was an under-reporting. Trends still go in the right direction, despite that; however the fall is lower because of it. Prediction for tomorrow: 1076
7-day average: 1132 - DOWN 7
1/4