Ian Kenway @iankenway@social.cleverlibre.org

The positivity though is still very low, at 9.9% (the only lower recent figure was yesterday), so more tests were carried out; again, the weather is a likely explanation for this.

7-day average: 680 - DOWN 49

R (estimate): 0.73 - UP 0.03
It's a fairly crude estimate, which doesn't take into account the positivity, so I wouldn't read anything into this small increase at the moment. It's likely to rise again tomorrow for the same weather-related reason.
2/4

#Ceredigion has 2 new cases. Following yesterday's 0, this is fairly good news. Obviously we would all have hoped we'd got rid of it, but that was unlikely to happen so quickly. The hope now is that these two people were already isolating.
7-day average: 3.71 - UNCHANGED

In second best place, Merthyr - still with just 5 cases.
I can't help thinking my "herd immunity" theory (see other posts for what I mean) applies here. This is quite a remarkable turnaround for them.
4/4

I agree with Piglet. I miss the hugs 😢

Diwrnod Santes Dwynwen Hapus!
❤️❤️❤️
Happy St Dwynwen’s Day!

Dwynwen is Wales' patron saint of lovers.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dydd_Santes_Dwynwen

U.S. Military Intelligence has been monitoring U.S. cellphone movement without a warrant! Anyone still think we don't need our own GDPR?

#privacy #GDPR #Military #intelligence #CybersecurityNews #technology

https://youtu.be/PRpEwUUKEQA

Why it’s too early to hold a referendum on independence. https://nation.cymru/opinion/why-its-too-early-to-hold-a-referendum-on-independence/

One time I applied to a crypto firm that had nearly 0 web presence and basically this was their business model

#SteveBell on the deadliness of the #UK #Covid-19 variant — #cartoon | Opinion | The Guardian

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/picture/2021/jan/26/steve-bell-on-the-deadliness-of-the-uk-covid-variant-cartoon

#UK #Politics #Satire #BorisJohnson #DavidCameron #BullingdonClub

Shame on the #UK #government. We’re now in the #SixFigureClub in terms of official number of #deaths from #Covid-19. It has been past that 100,000 for weeks if you consider excess deaths.

#Pandemic #Coronavirus

Cases at their lowest for over 2 months. Deaths down. Ceredigion still low.

Cases, just 570 (predicted: 699) are at their lowest since 10th November. Excluding that date (which was suspect) we have to go all the way back to 12th October for a lower figure.
7-day average: 936 - DOWN 77

Obviously questions will be asked whether or not today's figures are reliable. My feeling is that yes, they are - probably, but not certainly.
1/4

I'd predicted (based on yesterday's R and weekly trends) that today would be the lowest figure (excluding suspects) for 2 months.
Although it's lower than my prediction, it's not out of the ballpark. It's on the edge though. I'm not marking this one as suspicious in my spreadsheet, but I suspect that the by-sample-date graph might smooth this a bit. Positivity was a touch up on yesterday, at 12.9%.

Tomorrow's prediction: 888
R (estimate): 0.78.
2/4

This R is not based on the usual equation, because that would have included 2 values that I think are suspect - thus giving a rise in R, which clearly is wrong for today. Instead I have used an interpolated value in my equation.

There were 8 deaths recorded. This mostly represents deaths occurring on Sunday, and weekend reporting is always low. There were also 8 reported last Sunday. Few conclusions can be drawn from this.
7-day average: 37.0 - UNCHANGED
3/4

#Ceredigion has 6 new cases, continuing the low numbers for the county. I suppose the bad news is that it's up a little though on the last 3 days. But the good news is that it very much confirms we're down in low figures now in the county.
7-day average: 8.14 - DOWN 0.43
4/4

​

Today's #Covid19Cymru headlines:
Cases still trending down well. R down. Monday is not a good day for looking at trends in deaths (weekend figures); the average edges up very slightly.
Ceredigion still looking good.

There were 872 new cases reported today. That's a little under my prediction of 915. The average falls again.
7-day average: 1013 - DOWN 66

Prediction for tomorrow: 699

R (estimate): 0.79 - DOWN 0.01

1/3

#Ceredigion has 4 new cases. That's just 8 cases in 3 days. It would be nice if they were a single cluster; unfortunately they are spread around (1 each in Aber North, Aber South, Borth and Llambed).
7-day average: 8.57 - DOWN 2.14 and the lowest since early November.
Interestingly, the positivity rate for Ceredigion, 3.3%, is down on yesterday. So although yesterday's figures only reported 2 cases, there were over twice the tests carried out this time. Arguably then, this is a better result
3/3

Global #ice loss accelerating at record rate, study finds | #Environment | The Guardian

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jan/25/global-ice-loss-accelerating-at-record-rate-study-finds

#GlobalWarming #ClimateChange #SeaIce #SeaLevel #Glaciers #PolarRegions

"Google workers across the world are coming together to form a global union alliance. The newly formed coalition, called Alpha Global, is comprised of 13 different unions representing workers in 10 countries, including the United States, United Kingdom, and Switzerland."

Some fucking good news, at last

https://www.theverge.com/2021/1/25/22243138/google-union-alphabet-workers-europe-announce-global-alliance