Ian Kenway @iankenway@social.cleverlibre.org

21 deaths were recorded. This is significantly down on a day when we expect to see a post-weekend rebound. Maybe we'll see it tomorrow. But for now, this too is relatively good news.; lowest average since 16th December.
7-day average: 28.57 - DOWN 4.14

Let's put that into context though: this is only the 3rd day since the last peak that the average deaths has fallen below the PEAK of cases in the first wave (31.1 on Easter Sunday, 12/4).
3/4

#Ceredigion has just 2 cases today, being in top position in Cymru for number of cases, and (at 2.8) in cases per 100,000, though Denbighshire (at 3 cases, 3.1 per 100K) runs a close second.
7-day average: 4.14 - DOWN 0.57

The two cases in Ceredigion are:
1: Aberystwyth North
1: Aberteifi & Aberporth
https://portalcovidcymru.co.uk/map.html

[Screenshot of data: credit PHW web site https://public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary]
4/4

The fact that there were 675 cases therefore shouldn't have surprised me. It's still down on last Saturday (737), but I had assumed that day was a "catch-up" after the bad weather earlier that week.
7-day average: 560 - DOWN 9

R (estimate): 0.90 - DOWN 0.02
The bad weather affected figures (if indeed that was the reason) of late January are dropping out of the calculation, so despite cases being higher than expected, R goes down.
2/6

And despite all this, there is one piece of data which has me flummoxed, and that is the positivity. At just 7.5%, this is a whole 1.8 %age points lower than we've seen since way back last year. So, a lot of test results have come through today.

Not merely enough to push the case figures up, but enough to do that despite ~25% fewer of them being positive than we've been seeing of late. (I don't separately record the number of tests, but it's a simple equation: positives * (100/positivity)).
3/6

On a day of surprises, the deaths figure is no exception. There were 49 recorded today (cf last Saturday: 25). This is the highest figure for 9 days. I can think of 2 possible explanations:

1. The last 9 days' data have been low due to slow reporting (this could be a failing in just one health authority; we've seen this before)
2. The new strain is, as has been suggested, more deadly.
4/6

Given that 9 days ago the 7-day average was 39.14, before plummeting, I favour explanation 1, though we can't rule out the possibility that there is some effect from 2; indeed, what we're being told officially does align with this.
7-day average: 34.43 - UP 3.43

The take-home message from today's figures is, I think, that we cannot assume we're fully on top of this yet. But the trends are still in the right direction. Watching the figures right now is more important than ever.
5/6

#Ceredigion has 5 new cases. That's the 15th consecutive day with a single digit figure (except, arguably, for the day which recorded none at all, which because of the way it's reported was in fact a blank in the PHW data).
7-day average: 6.0 - UP 0.43

(Cases data screenshot from PHW web site; all graphs mine)
6/6

https://ypod.cymru/learnwelsh

A collection of podcasts suitable for #Welsh language learners. Improve your Welsh and practice your listening skills through listening to Welsh podcasts.

Today's #Covid19Cymru headlines:
Cases continue to trend downwards, deaths fall more significantly after the slight rise yesterday. Positivity at its lowest since before the lockdown.

There were 544 cases reported today. That's below my R-based prediction of 595. My current estimated R is (as I've explained before) affected by last week's artificially low reported number of cases, so seeing the cases coming in under the estimate is encouraging, suggesting the true R is below the estimate.
1/4

Breaking good news: Clearview Facial-Recognition Technology Ruled Illegal in Canada

"Canadian authorities have found that the collection of facial-recognition data by Clearview AI is illegal because it violates federal and provincial privacy laws..."

https://threatpost.com/clearview-facial-recognition-canada/163650/

#privacy #AI #clearview #Canada #news #biometric

#Ceredigion recorded 5 new cases. That's just hovering along frustratingly close to zero; the lowest in Cymru today. But it won't completely go.
7-day average: 4.43 - DOWN 0.29
4/4

There were 35 deaths recorded. Today's data provides us with a good example of how one day's data can be noisy, and that was particularly noticeable yesterday, with a high figure for deaths. Today's is much lower, and more than corrects for yesterday.
Both Wednesday and Thursday are - we observe - weekend catch-up days (data from the previous weekend coming through late), making them appear higher than other days.
7-day average: 28.71 - DOWN 3.0
3/4