Ian Kenway @iankenway@social.cleverlibre.org

Today's #Covid19Cymru headlines:
After yesterday's disappointing figures, today is a bit of a relief. Cases fall, R also falls a little but is still above 0.9. Deaths fall further.

There were 236 cases recorded today. That is the lowest figure recorded since 21st September. The 7-day average, which yesterday rose a little, falls again. In other words, yesterday was a bit of an outlier.
1/6

It's also quite possible that today is a bit of an outlier the other way though, because even for a Wednesday, which is usually on the low side, this is low. I have recently written a predictor which is based on the anomaly and the average rate of decrease, which predicted 256 for today, so perhaps it's not so far out. Tomorrow will tell (the new predictor goes for 226!)
7-day average: 342 - DOWN 20
2/6

Positivity is also good today. 6.7%, whilst not the lowest of late, is very low for a Wednesday (last Wednesday, the lowest post-peak Wednesday up until then, was 8.4%). The reason why Wednesday is higher is probably because the test results coming in on a Wednesday were mostly from samples collected on the weekend. People who go for tests on the weekend are more likely to believe they have Covid, and less likely to be a result of routine testing.
3/6

R (estimate 1 - publication date data): 0.92 - DOWN 0.04
R (estimate 2 - sample date data): 0.93/0.94 - DOWN 0.01/0.02

Estimate 2 is, to 3 decimal places, currently 0.934, and because it's fairly likely there are a few more results to come in for the time period used in the calculation, it's likely to push it up to the higher rounding.
Estimate 1 returns to where it was 2 days ago. Although it is very good to see these figures fall a little today, that's against the longer term trend,
4/6

... and both estimates of R remain uncomfortably close to 1.

There were 13 deaths recorded. This is (relatively!) excellent news, because Wednesday normally sees a post-weekend bounce-back. That hasn't happened today. It's likely we will see it tomorrow instead though.
7-day average: 12.57 - DOWN 2.43
5/6

#Ceredigion recorded zero cases, for the third time in the past month, thus taking top spot again in Cymru.
7-day average: 2.57 - DOWN 0.57

Notable other lows include:
2: Blaenau Gwent & Merthyr Tudful
4: Môn, Mynwy & Penfro

[Screenshot of data, credit PHW web site https://public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary ]
6/6

Before and after: how the #2011 #earthquake changed #Christchurch | World news | The Guardian

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/22/before-and-after-how-the-2011-earthquake-changed-christchurch

#NewZealand

Things are going great in Ontario

The Black Book of the New Wales represents 'utopian vision' for an independent nation. https://nation.cymru/culture/the-black-book-of-the-new-wales-represents-utopian-vision-for-an-independent-nation/

Fears language degrees at risk as Erasmus replacement focuses on UK trade agenda - https://www.theguardian.com/education/2021/feb/19/fears-language-degrees-at-risk-as-erasmus-replacement-focuses-on-uk-trade-agenda #brexit bigotry making UK more narrow-minded and insular...

Thousands of #UK #language #students left in limbo as #Brexit hits #travel plans | Brexit | The Guardian

The British are bad enough at learning foreign #languages as it is.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/feb/23/thousands-uk-language-students-limbo-brexit-hits-travel-plans

#Politics #Erasmus

Today's #Covid19Cymru headlines:
Cases show a slight rise today, but it's just one day, so it's dangerous to read too much into that. R seems to be closing in on 1, and that's a concern. Deaths down.

It's another day when I look at the figures and feel that we're not in as comfortable position as we were just a few weeks ago. Tuesday normally reports a low number of cases, so today's 317, though it sounds low, is actually an increase on last week.
1/4

Last Tuesday was unusually low, and noise happens, but I've had more days lately when I've been concerned, and fewer when I've been confident we're going the right way.
7-day average: 362 - UP 7

The positivity is also a slight concern. Tuesday's positivity is normally relatively high, though. Today's 8.6% is the highest for a week; last Tuesday was 8.7%. Again, only the slightest of falls.
2/4

R (estimate 1 - publication date data): 0.96 - UP 0.04
R (estimate 2 - sample date data): 0.95 - UNCHANGED

Estimate 1 seems now to be confirming what I've seen in estimate 2 now for a few days. R is indeed edging up towards 1.

There were 4 deaths. Tuesday's figures represent reporting on Sunday so are normally low. But still, this is the lowest daily figure (excluding days with known data issues) since 3rd November.
7-day average: 15.0 - DOWN 0.57
3/4

#Ceredigion has 3 new cases, sharing top spot with Bridgend and Monmouthshire. The latter two, however, push Ceredigion into third place, taking first and second place respectively, due to better per capita figures.
7-day average: 3.14 - UNCHANGED

Ceredigion's cases are:
1: Aberystwyth North
1: Rheidol, Ystwyth & Caron
1: Beulah, Troed-yr-Aur & Llandysul
https://portalcovidcymru.co.uk/map.html
4/4

@bob the Australians got themselves into a pickle by becoming dependent on FB in the first place for not just "tabloid" news but important public sector info like weather alerts, road safety announcements - there is no reason why these can't be published on the govts independent websites and different social media (even the UK makes a far better job of this, although the public sector overuses Twitter for short form time sensitive info compared to longer press releases)