Ian Kenway @iankenway@social.cleverlibre.org

Whilst yesterday's shockingly high deaths figure #Covid19Cymru was perhaps not entirely unpredictable (though the magnitude - 37 - surprised me), today's 21 is, to me at least, even more unexpectedly high. We expect a weekend rebound on Tuesday or Wednesday; we didn't see it Tuesday, so data coming in late can explain yesterday's figure. But not today's. This makes me very concerned that we locked down too late.
7-day average now 15.0, the highest since 10th May, and that's doubled in a week
1/3

With around 2 weeks to go until we see peak deaths following the lockdown, that would point to an average possibly as high as 60 per day (though we should see some tapering off in the few days before the peak).
However, the previous week's average was roughly static at around 7, so I am suspecting that quite a few (more than usual) of the cases reported the last 2 days have been carried forward from earlier.
2/3

With a 2-week time-to-double, which is more like what we have been seeing, we should max out at no more than 30.
The time-to-double of cases, which, being a larger figure, is perhaps more reliable, points to a doubling of just over 2 weeks (maybe as much as 18 days), which would strengthen that belief.
Rather than comment further today, here's a screenshot of the cases data. No change in top and bottom - Cardiff and Ceredigion respectively.
3/3

Scientists discover 500 metre-tall skyscraper #reef at #Australia's #GreatBarrierReef | #Environment | The Guardian

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/oct/28/scientists-discover-500-metre-tall-skyscraper-reef-at-australias-great-barrier-reef

#Ecology #Biodiversity #MarineEnvironment

Estimated #Covid19Cymru figures for Ceredigion for the last week, from the Zoe app.

37 deaths, 1414 new cases in #Covid19Cymru official days We're back to April figures here.
Weekend rebounds in death figures often happen on a Wednesday rather than a Tuesday in my experience, but even so today's figure is shocking.
Who's still saying the lockdown is wrong? Get real.

Switzerland and Germany point to Wales' 'firebreak' lockdown as an example to follow. https://nation.cymru/news/switzerland-and-germany-point-to-wales-firebreak-lockdown-as-an-example-to-follow/

Today's #Covid19Cymru deaths show the highest figure reported in one day since 9th April. Doubtless there was an element of a backlog, probably from the weekend, but that does not alter the fact that it's a shocking figure.
The 7-day average deaths is now 13.0 - the highest since 11th May (and that is a fair comparison).
I hope those politicians who even today are questioning the strictness of the lockdown realise that their words will likely cost lives. I fear they may not care.
1/2

There were 1414 cases reported today - the highest so far, with RhCT regaining top position with a shocking 276 cases.
≥100
276: RhCT
170: Cardiff
127: Swansea
119: Caerffili

≤10
10: Gwynedd
4: Penfro
3: Ceredigion

Notable:
47: Powys (what nutter wanted them exempt from lockdown? - yes, it was a tory)

“The Democrats think Boris is a pea from the same pod as Trump.” Being “Britain’s Trump” goes down almost as poisonously as being Trump himself among many in Team Biden. They are bracketed together in the minds of Democrats not just because both are rule-breaking populists who have polarised their countries and trashed historic alliances.".
They are right.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/25/johnson-dangerously-close-to-one-us-president-wht-if-biden-wins

Love this new tool I've been using from Interactive Brokers. I tell it what I care about ethically and it grades my stock portfolio based on the companies I invest in and their adherence to my moral preferences. Its a great way to invest and ensure you do so with an ethical motivation.

This is one of the portfolios I use for algorithmic trading. I'm trying to program into the algorithms a sense of ethics in how it trades and it seems to be working.

#stocks #Investing #InteractiveBrokers

Your regular reminder that cross-posting from Twitter is the social media equivalent of having a loud phone conversation while ignoring the people in the room with you.

Release of 2nd progress report for #Germany's #ClimateChangeAdaptation strategy & #ActionPlan for #Adaptation

Goals:
• Better financing for #climateadaptation
• Support for social institutions

Measures to make Germany #climate-proof:
• Floods & low water or disrupted infrastructures
• Effects on agriculture
• Health hazards
• Security risks for the economy
• Civil protection

Press release #Umweltbundesamt (German):
https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/presse/pressemitteilungen/bundesregierung-beschliesst-aktionsplan-fuer

Progress report (German):
https://www.bmu.de/fileadmin/Daten_BMU/Download_PDF/Klimaschutz/klimawandel_das_2_fortschrittsbericht_bf.pdf