Ian Kenway @iankenway@social.cleverlibre.org

It is looking increasingly like we're flattening out at the top of the cases curve in #Covid19Cymru, Despite the odd reporting over the weekend, the direction of the 7-day average (green) line seems to be turning. This is pretty much exactly when I said we'd see this happening in my Nation.Cymru article a fortnight ago, so I suspect this is real.
I'm assuming the blank against Gwynedd in the PHW data is a genuine 0, not a reporting failure. It was yesterday's lowest county.

1/2

As for deaths, they are slightly down too; just 4 today, taking the daily average down 0.43 to 15. That's not expected yet, but the weekend rebound often comes on a Wednesday. So I'm expecting a higher figure tomorrow (and don't be too shocked if it is very high). 2/2

Did that bloke on the Jeremy Vine show really just say that the 'coloured' vote would automatically go to Biden?

What year are we in again?

Treat artificial #light like others forms of #pollution, say scientists | #Environment | The Guardian

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/nov/02/treat-artificial-light-form-pollution-environment

As we suspected, this tweet from public health Wales confirms that today's case figures are lower than they should be.

"Please note - due to a data transfer problem between NWIS and Public Health Wales, some recent test results may not have been included in today’s data. They will be included in future outputs if necessary."

https://twitter.com/PublicHealthW/status/1322902005552189449?s=19

Whilst yesterday's shockingly high deaths figure #Covid19Cymru was perhaps not entirely unpredictable (though the magnitude - 37 - surprised me), today's 21 is, to me at least, even more unexpectedly high. We expect a weekend rebound on Tuesday or Wednesday; we didn't see it Tuesday, so data coming in late can explain yesterday's figure. But not today's. This makes me very concerned that we locked down too late.
7-day average now 15.0, the highest since 10th May, and that's doubled in a week
1/3

With around 2 weeks to go until we see peak deaths following the lockdown, that would point to an average possibly as high as 60 per day (though we should see some tapering off in the few days before the peak).
However, the previous week's average was roughly static at around 7, so I am suspecting that quite a few (more than usual) of the cases reported the last 2 days have been carried forward from earlier.
2/3

With a 2-week time-to-double, which is more like what we have been seeing, we should max out at no more than 30.
The time-to-double of cases, which, being a larger figure, is perhaps more reliable, points to a doubling of just over 2 weeks (maybe as much as 18 days), which would strengthen that belief.
Rather than comment further today, here's a screenshot of the cases data. No change in top and bottom - Cardiff and Ceredigion respectively.
3/3

Scientists discover 500 metre-tall skyscraper #reef at #Australia's #GreatBarrierReef | #Environment | The Guardian

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/oct/28/scientists-discover-500-metre-tall-skyscraper-reef-at-australias-great-barrier-reef

#Ecology #Biodiversity #MarineEnvironment