Ian Kenway @iankenway@social.cleverlibre.org

@iankenway Typical politician... "I want to take away your rights to protect children from sexual abuse"...

you: "Cant we just agree to protect children from sexual abuse without violating my rights or privacy"

politician: "You mean to tell me you support pedophilia!!!"

@freemo I agree. I think there is an element of complacency and fatigue from restrictionscreeping in, but also increased time indoors in less well ventilated rooms (it's gone considerably colder this past week).

I've had to change the scale for today's #Covid19Cymru cases graph. It's a new record: 1916 is the highest number of cases reported in a single day. That's very bad news; the 7-day average goes UP 131 to 1351.
Worse, R (estimate) goes up 0.03 to 1.22.

How could this be? Well, if R is up it means one (or more) of a few things:
1. Bad data. I doubt this, because the last few days have been around what would be expected, statistically
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2. Colder weather. This forces people indoors more, and there's likely to be less ventilation, to save energy. The virus likes those conditions.
3. Complacency and restriction fatigue. It's been a long time now, and news of the vaccine might have encouraged people to think it's nearly over
4. Students getting tested before going home. This has been happening across Wales' universities, and will have found cases that might not have been found otherwise.

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I favour 2 and 4, with possibly an element of 3. If it's mostly 4, then it is of less concern.

There were 14 deaths recorded. That's slightly lower than last Sunday (though Sunday usually sees under-reporting), so brings the 7-day average DOWN 0.29 to 24.29.

There's also some good news for #Ceredigion, where 11 new cases sees the 7-day average drop 1.71 to 16.
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The four issues on which the 2021 Senedd election will be won and lost. https://nation.cymru/opinion/the-four-issues-on-which-the-2021-senedd-election-will-be-won-and-lost/

Today's #Covid19Cymru figures should serve as a warning to us all that this really is not under control, and that we all need do our bit to help (yes, including the hospitality sector).
1645 new cases (the third highest).
7-day average: 1220 - UP 28
R (estimate): 1.19 (UP 0.02).

Cases going up is bad enough, but the fact that R is still going up is a sign it's out of control. We can't carry on like this, and I am not sure the measures taken yesterday will be sufficient.
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There were 24 #Covid19Cymru deaths recorded.
7-day average: 24.57 - DOWN 0.71
This figure has been hovering along in the mid 20s for a month now. Are we really OK with that many people dying every day in Wales? I'm not.

The figures for #Ceredigion go up again. 32 cases were recorded today.
7-day average: 17.71 - UP 2.14
R (estimate): 1.09
Note that with a smaller population, figures are more prone to noise.
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Check out the QEMU advent calendar: an amazing disk image to download every day!

https://www.qemu-advent-calendar.org/2020/

Frontline health and care workers without symptoms to be tested twice a week in Wales. https://nation.cymru/news/frontline-health-and-care-workers-without-symptoms-to-be-tested-twice-a-week-in-wales/

We've had a few days now where the #Covid19Cymru figures have felt right, statistically. Today's 1471 cases is around the area we would expect; if anything, a touch low, as Friday is normally the highest of the week (so that's good news).

Because last Friday's was not one of those days (it was lower than it should have been), the average, and R, look worse than they should. Tomorrow should see a corresponding fall.
7-day average: 1192 - UP 53
R (estimate): 1.17 - UP 0.06
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