Ian Kenway @iankenway@social.cleverlibre.org

We had a very strange anomaly in the data this past week; that is, tests with a sample date of 8th March (Monday). This is much higher than we would have expected, given the data around it (now 258 and could yet rise further - cf 244 1 week earlier). This is I think what threw out some of the trends this week.

7-day average: 184 - DOWN 6
2/5

Positivity is at a record post peak low of 3.0%. It's also very interesting to look at both the by-sample-date and by-publication-date graphs, and see how smooth and straight the 7-day average line appears. That's a very good sign.

R (estimate 1 - publication date data): 0.93 - DOWN 0.01
R (estimate 2 - sample date data): 0.89 - DOWN 0.02

Estimate 2 is based on data from the 11 days to 9/3 and includes an assumption that there is still a little data to come in for this period.
3/5

As numbers get lower, small outbreaks can have a more noticeable effect on the trends, and we've certainly been seeing that in the estimated R over recent weeks. It's still right to include them of course; they are all part of the story.

There were 12 deaths recorded today. That's the same as last Friday, and it's disappointing. But with very low numbers now coming through, noise makes trends appear less consistent.
7-day average: 8.29 - UNCHANGED

4/5

Just been reading up on this but in my ignorance, can someone please tell me what is meant by a 'script'? 🤔

https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/ublock-origin/cjpalhdlnbpafiamejdnhcphjbkeiagm?hl=en

uBlock Origin is not an "ad blocker", it is a wide-spectrum blocker, which happens to be able to function as a mere "ad blocker". But it can also be used in a manner similar to NoScript (to block scripts) and/or RequestPolicy (to block all 3rd-party servers by default), using a point-and-click user interface.

Today's #Covid19Cymru headlines:
For the first time in a while, the 7-day cases average goes up. But don't panic (I have an explanation). Deaths down. Ceredigion records 0 cases for the 3rd day out of 4.

There were 225 cases recorded today. That's more than expected and significantly up on last Wednesday's 208. But looking at the sample dates shows that significantly more tests from 2 days ago have come through (163) than is usual (cf yesterday 91).
1/4

There's also 8 cases from 28/2 - 2/3. So, this looks like good work on the part of PHW, not just catching up, but also turning results around quicker.
7-day average: 200 - UP 2.

Positivity is 4.7%, down from 5.3% last Wednesday.

R (estimate 1 - publication date data): 0.93 - UP 0.02
R (estimate 2 - sample date data): 0.92 - DOWN 0.02

Estimate 1 is up because of the larger number of cases reported today. But both are a bit too close to 1 for my liking (at which point, cases start to rise).
2/4

There were 6 deaths, and that on a Wednesday, on which we're used to seeing a post-weekend rebound. It seems to me that this is a sign of the vaccine doing its job and protecting those more vulnerable to death from Covid.
7-day average: 8.0 - DOWN 0.86

We must however remember that the age group who are most vulnerable to #LongCovid has not yet been vaccinated (30s-50s, mainly previously fit and healthy people). This is a terrible condition for many and a huge cost to society.

3/4

#Ceredigion has recorded zero cases for the second day in succession, and the third day from the last four.
The other top counties are Mynwy and Torfaen, both on 3.
See Lowri Williams' superb site https://portalcovidcymru.co.uk/map.html for a local breakdown.

[Screenshot of data table, credit PHW https://public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary]

4/4

Bombshell poll shows increase in support for abolishing the monarchy. https://nation.cymru/news/bombshell-poll-shows-increase-in-support-for-abolishing-the-monarchy/

English voters with ‘devolution anxiety’ driving change in British politics, say professors. https://nation.cymru/news/english-voters-with-devolution-anxiety-driving-change-in-british-politics-say-professors/

#SteveBell on the #government’s £22bn #test-and-trace programme — #cartoon | Opinion | The Guardian

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/picture/2021/mar/10/steve-bell-on-the-governments-22bn-test-and-trace-programme-cartoon

#UK #Politics #Satire #Pandemic

Today's #Covid19Cymru headlines:
Cases slightly down, deaths flat, positivity down, R closer to 1 than I am happy about.

There were 166 new cases reported today. It's great to see numbers down below 200, but this isn't quite as good as it looks; last Tuesday was 170. We can't afford to get complacent here. And although it's just 1 day, it serves as a timely warning.
7-day average: 197 - DOWN 1

1/4

As the vaccine rollout proceeds, it will have more and more room for manoeuvre, but those vaccinated so far are mainly those who would not have a significant impact on the R rate anyway. We're just getting into the ones that will be significant for R now.

There were 3 deaths reported today. That gives a weekend total of 3 (Monday and Tuesday being weekend figures, and there were no deaths reported yesterday). That is one down on the previous weekend, which recorded 4.

3/4

However, because that weekend saw the higher figure on Monday, the average goes up today.
7-day average: 8.86 - UP 0.29

#Ceredigion has zero cases for the second day in three, and the 4th in a fortnight.
Other counties of note:
2: Torfaen, Merthyr Tudful & Penfro
3: Mynwy
4: Powys
A more detailed breakdown can be seen here: https://portalcovidcymru.co.uk/map.html

[Data table image credit PHW web site https://public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary]

4/4

'Wales is your home', First Minister tells EU nationals as settled status deadline approaches. https://nation.cymru/news/wales-is-your-home-first-minister-tells-eu-nationals-as-settled-status-deadline-approaches/