Ian Kenway @iankenway@social.cleverlibre.org

Happy Pi Day.
Vi Hart in particularly reflective and musical mood at 2021-3-14:1.59 (and 26 seconds?).
#PiDay2021
https://youtube.com/watch?v=AHrth9lOfzo&ab_channel=Vihart

Supermarket stories 1/2

My local supermarket has a serious supply issue with Chinese 5 Spice. They haven't had any for at least 3 weeks, everytime I go in there they have an 'expected on' date 2 or 3 days in advance. When that day comes they change the expected on date to another 2 or 3 days in the future. No-one I've asked at the store has any explanation as to what the problem is!

I blame Brexit!

Supermarket stories 2/2

Magazines and newspapers are essential items in my store but books are not. Mother's Day cards are essential and so apparently are Mother's Day gifts. So they've put a stand saying MD gifts and have moved some books into it so that they become 'essential'.

On the stand are Michelle Obama's autobiography or the Pinch of Nom slimming recipe book.

Hello Mam,

Happy Mother's Day, you need inspiration
or
Happy Mother's Day, you could lose a few pounds

You decide!

I have enjoyed having a single rose bud and flower on this legacy rose bush on the farm, and a couple of days ago I was delighted to see that it has grown a strong water-shoot, proving that the plant is in good condition. This is how a rose bush rejuvenates itself, creating new, strong flowering wood from low down on the main stem. It is a harbinger of more flowers the next flowering season.

I am encouraged enough to be planning to build a wire-netting enclosure to protect it.

#roses #photos

@iankenway
And the united states has more than just 2(republican/democrat)... But it seems most people don't realize this...

Today's #Covid19Cymru headlines:
Cases trending down still. Trend in deaths looks stalled again. Positivity a record low. Indicators for R slightly improved.

There were 190 cases reported today. Friday often tends to have higher figures than the rest of the week, but this week has been different. I can't see that this is because of reporting issues; by-sample-date data seems to be coming in at the usual speed.
1/5

We had a very strange anomaly in the data this past week; that is, tests with a sample date of 8th March (Monday). This is much higher than we would have expected, given the data around it (now 258 and could yet rise further - cf 244 1 week earlier). This is I think what threw out some of the trends this week.

7-day average: 184 - DOWN 6
2/5

Positivity is at a record post peak low of 3.0%. It's also very interesting to look at both the by-sample-date and by-publication-date graphs, and see how smooth and straight the 7-day average line appears. That's a very good sign.

R (estimate 1 - publication date data): 0.93 - DOWN 0.01
R (estimate 2 - sample date data): 0.89 - DOWN 0.02

Estimate 2 is based on data from the 11 days to 9/3 and includes an assumption that there is still a little data to come in for this period.
3/5

As numbers get lower, small outbreaks can have a more noticeable effect on the trends, and we've certainly been seeing that in the estimated R over recent weeks. It's still right to include them of course; they are all part of the story.

There were 12 deaths recorded today. That's the same as last Friday, and it's disappointing. But with very low numbers now coming through, noise makes trends appear less consistent.
7-day average: 8.29 - UNCHANGED

4/5

Just been reading up on this but in my ignorance, can someone please tell me what is meant by a 'script'? 🤔

https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/ublock-origin/cjpalhdlnbpafiamejdnhcphjbkeiagm?hl=en

uBlock Origin is not an "ad blocker", it is a wide-spectrum blocker, which happens to be able to function as a mere "ad blocker". But it can also be used in a manner similar to NoScript (to block scripts) and/or RequestPolicy (to block all 3rd-party servers by default), using a point-and-click user interface.

Today's #Covid19Cymru headlines:
For the first time in a while, the 7-day cases average goes up. But don't panic (I have an explanation). Deaths down. Ceredigion records 0 cases for the 3rd day out of 4.

There were 225 cases recorded today. That's more than expected and significantly up on last Wednesday's 208. But looking at the sample dates shows that significantly more tests from 2 days ago have come through (163) than is usual (cf yesterday 91).
1/4

There's also 8 cases from 28/2 - 2/3. So, this looks like good work on the part of PHW, not just catching up, but also turning results around quicker.
7-day average: 200 - UP 2.

Positivity is 4.7%, down from 5.3% last Wednesday.

R (estimate 1 - publication date data): 0.93 - UP 0.02
R (estimate 2 - sample date data): 0.92 - DOWN 0.02

Estimate 1 is up because of the larger number of cases reported today. But both are a bit too close to 1 for my liking (at which point, cases start to rise).
2/4

There were 6 deaths, and that on a Wednesday, on which we're used to seeing a post-weekend rebound. It seems to me that this is a sign of the vaccine doing its job and protecting those more vulnerable to death from Covid.
7-day average: 8.0 - DOWN 0.86

We must however remember that the age group who are most vulnerable to #LongCovid has not yet been vaccinated (30s-50s, mainly previously fit and healthy people). This is a terrible condition for many and a huge cost to society.

3/4