"the fate of all mankind,
I fear,
is in the hands of fools"
@amerika red wine + cooking with friends + good music
@amerika booze is better
@dave @Hyolobrika @yogthos where is this information coming from
@dave @Hyolobrika @yogthos also, how many HIMARS do the ukes actually have? I saw a source that some of them need to be built and won't arrive for least a year
@dave @Hyolobrika @yogthos the other interpretation is that they're giving their crap tanks to the local militia after realising the ukes had more firepower than expected
it's unclear what the ratio of local militia to regular Russian forces is, haven't seen any compelling sources
@dave @Hyolobrika @yogthos
quantitative estimates like this are pointless imo, although the argumentation is interesting
I think the West is softening to the idea of a diplomatic settlement, this fighting serves no one's interest and, current victories notwithstanding, it's hard to see how Ukraine can push Russia out in the long term
my base case would be steady Russian advances until the point where the majority of ethnic Russians peters out and a settlement with Kiev.