First Mastodon🧵(making use of the 500 character limit)
With #SARSCoV2 becoming #endemic, the question remains how much #mortality we will have to expect in the coming years.
While naturally acquired and vaccine-elicited immunity has greatly reduced the risk of severe disease and death, many European countries still experience substantial #excessmortality. This is not unexpected given the observed short- and long-term mortality following #SARSCoV2 infection. (1/4) #xp
@c_althaus
And where does US compare?
I don't think this is the best way to look at this data, but, that said, I had the same question so here's my findings from the same data set it appears that he used.
Except for a few weeks in the summer of 2022(mid-July to mid-August) the US has not dipped below 15% since 2020.
The raw data shows a little over 220,000 excess deaths in the US from the beginning of 2022 until the last data date which is November 6th, 2022. That's 308 days so it ends up at ~714 excess deaths per day, from this data set, in the US.
@BE @CmddASP @c_althaus That 15% is a cumulative value starting in 2020. I'd like to reset it to start from Jan 1 2022, or even March 1 2022 (after the main omicron wave) to get a better sense of what 'the new normal' looks like. I don't see any way to do that on the website, unfortunately.
@BE @CmddASP @c_althaus The graph I posted above is not using the best method to calculate the baseline (according to OWID documentation). Sorry for any confusion. Below is a better one, also broken down by age group. Based on this measure, excess deaths have been about 5% since the initial Omicron wave.
@BE @CmddASP @c_althaus Here's a slightly different view of excess deaths. It's calculated weekly -- and has been >10% in the US for most of the year.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-p-scores-average-baseline?time=2022-01-16..latest&country=~USA