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Well, I think the incidence is not all in this story. There's a lot going on with the amount and quality of information we have.

A year ago, there was much much more uncertainty (several magnutides more!) in the whole game. In March '20 we simply did not know which things work, which do not, we did not know the transmission vectors (remember those animations of runners breathing and a debate about whether running shall be done side--by-side or in a line one-after-another?), we even did not know how the first wave peak looks and "feels" like. Now we do know all that, we know a lot about this virus, we learned, we have experience. So under the same conditions as year ago, we have now sufficient information to (potentially) make a different decision. That's why it's not completely 🤦‍♂️ .

This is not to say that Germany should close or not, that is not to me to decide. I just want to inject a bit of useful context into the debate.

@kattascha

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