#Brexit IS done.
In the same way #Muscovy and what's left of its 'army,' #economy and future IS done.
https://medium.com/political-risk/not-project-fear-project-already-here-812c02751a6c
On the subject of Brexit. Look how much worse the UK has performed with exports than other countries
@chowderman @decodingtrolls well it puts the lie to the Brexit "opportunities" story that some Tories and media are still pushing.
Remember that Farage went on record before the referendum claiming that we could go for a Norway type deal, which also says that Brexit in Name Only, was one of the options pushed.
Given the state of the economy and the finances, it is utter vandalism to ignore a massive and entirely self-inflicted damage to the economy that was pushed by the Tories with a complicit media setting the agenda.
Has anyone solved the mystery of the missing 10th Brexit "opportunity" that mysteriously wasn't on Mogg's list?
How long before the Brexiteers start advising Russia on the "opportunities" self-sanctioning can lead to? #Brexit
Have the Ruschists thought of flying in some Brexiteers? Dover deals with this kind of stuff the whole time. Operation Yellowhammer I think they called it. "How to introduce friction where there was none." Still, plenty of opportunities for graft.
@ParkinJim I love how Brexit Opportunity 2 (increase vacuum-cleaner wattage) and Brexit Opportunity 9 (reduce red tape on electrical wiring) combine into a self-generating metaphor for what #Brexit has done: mass electrocution.
@decodingtrolls also remember Rees-Mogg's "bonfire of the regulations" then Grenfell happened, showing that the regulations are already not strict enough
@decodingtrolls @Parkin Putin thought that by making the financial and humanitarian cost of independence truly huge, he could convince Ukrainians to accept the russian empire. He thought by making the financial cost to the West of supporting Ukraine great, we would be dissuaded from supporting Ukraine. He failed in both. Why would you think that the loss of a London banker’s bonus would dissuade a plumber in Preston from supporting UK independence?
@chowderman When, say, £1t in GBP denominated assets in London is sold into Euros, this lowers the value of Sterling. Means the plumber in Preston is paying more for the avocados in their preferred brand of guacamole. As at 2019, prices in UK were 2% higher because of breakfast. This predicted and predictable impact of withdrawing from frictionless trade with ~52% of its market (the SM) wasn't on the Brexit bus. Plumber in Preston was trolled into voting for #Brexit on lies. Consent hacked.
@decodingtrolls DC. I believe that “the truth that dare not speak it’s name” is that our plumber saw decades of increasing income inequality and employment insecurity, an influx of hard working cheap labour from the EU and (not unreasonably) deduced that an end to uncontrolled migration would improve his lot. Was he wrong or not? (Inflation is a factor but not everything)
@chowderman @decodingtrolls exports are not the cause of "bankers' bonuses".
Exports are vital to the viability of many companies - certainly many jobs, especially in manufacturing, depend on exports.
Yes the manufacturing sector is less important than it used to be but that's not a reason to destroy it for ideological pursuit of a Brexit that an increasing majority of the British public don't want.
Also, we have given examples of damage from Brexit, can you name a benefit?
@ParkinJim @decodingtrolls Exports of goods or services Jim? There is a difference.
I believe that one reason for the simultaneous drop in exports & imports of goods is that we no longer send or receive some widget for one bolt to be added before it is sent back - Not the death of manufacturing.
Employment is holding up well, isn’t it? Who knows, maybe one day the functionary class can be cajoled into some deregulation.
@ParkinJim @decodingtrolls You want evidence that project fear was dishonest when it claimed that Brexit would lead to mass unemployment? (the small buldge, now over, is nothing more than Covid)…
@ParkinJim @decodingtrolls When I wrote Employment is holding up well” I meant “unemployment is low”.
@ParkinJim @decodingtrolls No, you choose the exports graph because it is the most dramatic. Try a graph of GDP per capita, or trade balance, or balance of payments for something that may have some value.
@chowderman @ParkinJim Here I use a number of metrics. And on each the result is indeed dramatic, as was predicted. The most important point though is that the English state has never produced a proper accounting of the impact of #Brexit. So it's left to Brexit nerds like myself to compile such accounting's of it from multiple reliable sources: https://medium.com/political-risk/not-project-fear-project-already-here-812c02751a6c
@decodingtrolls @chowderman I looked at exports first because exports are the obvious thing that would be affected by changes to ease of trade with our biggest market.
I don't see why you are dismissing them as potentially unimportant.
@ParkinJim @decodingtrolls Jim, credit where credit is due - your graph did compare with other nations, which does allow the effects of covid & war to be demonstrated. But we know that exports are most affected, imports are also down, and the more important balances of trade & payments - but to a lesser degree.
@chowderman @decodingtrolls why is a drop in imports a good thing of itself?
@ParkinJim @decodingtrolls I don’t say that it need be a good thing (mercantilists worry about low exports or high imports). I believe that balance of payments is the best metric for external trade, and income equality the most important metric for society.
@chowderman @ParkinJim Here's the current state of the UK's current account:
England's current account deficit in 2nd quarter 2022 was -£33b.
Current account is the difference measured in monetary value of imports/exports.
@decodingtrolls @ParkinJim That is very interesting, but you are naughty DC, by showing a graph from 1955 (?) it all looks more dramatic than it is in reality. A bit more volatile recently but the mean looks about unchanged since 2014.
@decodingtrolls @ParkinJim Yes decoding, your analysis makes more sense than picking one graph as Jim did.
@ParkinJim "Look what we've done to the French!" cheer the Brexiteers.
"Look what Brexiteers done to us," cheer the Irish.
Every week I run into at least one irritating problem cos of Brexit. It's the ultimate meta-troll, which was begotten of trolling by trolls (like Johnson and Gove), and injects multiple irritating emotion-moving annoyances into tens of millions of lives.
@ParkinJim @decodingtrolls Does it matter?