Everyone is reporting on "Air traffic chaos caused by 'one in 15 million' event". https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-66723586
But the report says "This scenario had never been encountered before, with the system having previously processed more than 15 million flight plans" https://www.nats.aero/news/nats-report-into-air-traffic-control-incident-details-root-cause-and-solution-implemented/
@standupmaths I suppose we're going to have to wait another 30 or so million flight plans to see if that statistic holds up with any reasonable level of confidence.
@zornslemmon @standupmaths
Currently, we have observed things going wrong only once, which means that the probability would be 1/15*10^6. As we have only one observation like that, there is a lot of uncertainty and variability in that estimate. We would need a sample size several orders of magnitude larger before we can say much more about that probability. Currently, we are lead to believe that it’s incredibly unlikely, but there’s a possibility that we just got super lucky 15 million times in a row. What if the true probability is closer to 1/100 or something.
