STRATEGY UPDATE

Russia is continuing to pour Z units into the Kupyansk area and they are making gains, though small and incremental.
General Syrsky thought it sufficiently important to spend most of his time there in recent days. Ukrainian reinforcements have been and continue to be deployed. Now this isn’t as bad as it sounds. For one the Russians seem to have made a much wider decision in my opinion. They want the Luhansk and Donetsk areas and that’s where they have placed almost all of what matters that’s left.
North and south of Bakhmut the Ukrainians seem to have decided they’ve done enough - I could be wrong of course, but I have a feeling that their mission now is to pin the Russians down and go on the defensive. They know Russia can’t admit or afford to loose Bakhmut politically, so Ukraine is well aware it can keep Russians engaged here indefinitely.
Ukraine has made no offensive moves to push the matter in days. That’s got to be important. The Bakhmut front was one of the possible major advance targets but I think it’s now been ruled out.
The real advances and the biggest options are the twin tracks of Robotnye and Zvitove. Ukraine has deployed the 87th Airborne - a fully trained professional NATO standard equipped elite unit of 2,000+ men. These are the guys with the Challenger-2’s and the Marders & Strykers. These are Ukraine’s Storm
Troopers and they’re being used now because they can make a difference. They, I think, are the hammer that cracks the Russian defences at Robotnye and opens up that major advance line.
On the other end is the 47th and the 9th and they are battle hardened and effective.
Ukraine has the initiative in the south and the Russians know it.
Added to that is the Kherson front. This is the fox in the hen house. It’s totally screwed up the Russian response and has deeply undermined the whole southern front.
Forget the tactics for a moment. This is what I think has really happened on both sides.
RUSSIA: I think Russia has more or less given up in its own mind the whole of the south. They accept it will be lost but they won’t just abandon it. They’ll make Ukraine pay for it as much as they can.
What Russia is doing is keeping its best forces on the Eastern front area and they’ll fight hard to keep what they have and even expand it. But I do think in the end, they know Zaporhizia and Kherson are lost.
UKRAINE:
I think Ukraine has decided it can’t push any more at Bakhmut. It might make some attempts but they’ll fight the Russians tooth and nail to hold what they have taken just to keep them there.
They’re seeing their strategy come to fruition in the south and the Russians are unable to stop them despite trying. It’s just become impossible for Russian artillery and logistics to provide the backup Russian military operations require. Ukraine can smell victory here and the Russians there know it too. The south is Russia’s sacrifice to sustain the Eastern front. They just don’t want it to look like one.
The big question is Crimea. Breaking into the peninsula could be a miserable battle. Clearing Russians out of it just as much so. Neither side has worked out how it will go yet.
My reason for why I think the Russians at the top have let the south go in their minds: if it really was what they wanted to keep they would have thrown everything at it. Instead they tinker around in the east doing nothing much but with large enough forces they know they’re going to be a nightmare to get rid of. If it can even be done.
They’re letting the south collapse slowly as a means of slowing the Ukrainians down and prolonging the war past the Russian and US elections, in March and November next year.
Putin wants no doubt about his result - it’ll be faked but he wants a real majority. And he wants Trump back in office to end aid to Ukraine. He thinks in the end he’ll walk away with enough to survive. I think he’s wrong ultimately, but it’s clear to see why he thinks it might work.

Slava Ukraine 🇺🇦!