From "The Analyst":

RUSSIA IS ALL-IN: THERE’S NO GOING BACK

It’s ironic that Russia claims constantly how NATO is a threat. Yet on virtually every border - even the Kaliningrad exclave, defences have been stripped bare and troops removed.
Over the past month exceptionally high numbers of Russian Il-76 transport flights from the far east and European borders, have moved the remaining S-300 and S-400 systems towards more vulnerable regions of Russia’s frontlines with Ukraine - and Crimea. What was left to stand guard has gone. In effect Russia has now completely committed itself to the war on Ukraine.
There is no more pandering or pretence to defend places that really are under no threat whatsoever. There’s greater risk from internal strife than there is of a foreign power attacking. Which is exactly how it’s always been. Which in turn, emphasises that everything Russian leaders have ever said about the threat of NATO and Ukraine or any other country inside of NATO, is merely them trying to prevent potential victims from seeking protection.
The move to shift these defence systems tells us other key facts.
There are no more air defences to replace the losses they’ve suffered. When these go that’s it. Russian production rates just can’t get anywhere near what’s needed to produce whole systems at speed.
We know they fear increasing availability of ATACMS and SCALP/Stormshadow. We know they’re afraid of increasing drone strikes - indeed they’ve already started in retaliation for huge strikes at Kyiv this past few days in which 74 of 75 Shaheed were shot down. The missile strikes haven’t yet commenced.
Inside Russia we’re seeing a long string of fires, unexplained explosions and mysterious derailments. Around places like Melitopol there are pitch battles with Partisans who concentrate their attention on a target then melt into the environment, leaving the Russians wondering where and when next, they will strike.
The extremities of Russia are vulnerable. Russian influence is weaker now than ever and the countries of the former Soviet Union know it most. Slowly but surely they distance themselves from their former masters. They look south and east to their own languages and cultures, or to China and the west for economic development and commodity sales. They brazenly ignore Moscow’s feelings while paying lip service to its leadership to keep them quiet. Post war, Russia is going to turn around and find its back yard has a river of political and economic distance separating it from its old neighbours. And it will have no way to change the outcome.
The Russians are at the bottom of the barrel in equipment and quality. The few technical advances they make are not in themselves going to change the war. Yet they’re all-in. There’s no going back. If anything the end of the war will reveal the vast cracks in Russia dictatorship and conflict are papering over. Without war, how can anything be justified?
The advantages of being ‘all-in’ are many - everyone knows what the target is. The disadvantages are when it’s over you’re by definition, ‘all-out’. And when you haven’t won and everyone knows it, the price of failure will be paid. Not even Putin will avoid that day. And it will come.