From "The Analyst":
KHERSON FRONT HEAVY FIGHTING
It seems the Ukrainian Marines have managed to push deeper into the forest in front of Krynky and have entrenched positions there.
Fighting is described as heavy.
The lack of Russian discipline in the region is starting to show.
Making videos and using your own phone on the front lines is something largely expunged from most Russian units. The fact that so many videos are making there way out from this front and the level of criticism they’re levelling against their commanders tells you a great deal.
They’re generally deeply impressed at the level of Ukrainian drone-artillery coordination. They’re very aware that they don’t have that support and lack artillery. They’re also sick of the air force bombings having no coordination and being as much a risk for Russian forces as they are Ukrainian.
On top of that they are being killed by their own minefields. The units that laid them are long gone and there are no maps of where they are because coordination is so poor - so the minefields have become as deadly for Russians as they are potentially for Ukrainians.
One unit complained of using 50 men to mines and its these mines that ended up killing a Russian general this past week.
Yet another video from Russian troops in the 1082nd complains about being ordered to attack the islands with no backup no plan and not a lot of ammunition - and that this endless attack to defend policy was simply loosing men for nothing.
So far videos from five units in the Krynky front have been published in as many days and while they haven’t quite mutinied, they don’t appear to be far from it. They’re so demoralised they just don’t care anymore- but they’re too afraid, thanks to propaganda, to surrender and save themselves.
One unit that obeyed the order to go into the islands is in video complaining that their commander didn’t realise they were tidal and they’ve been stuck sleeping in trees until the water drops.
Commanders have started to react and try to find the troublemakers but all that seems to have done is spread the disquiet further.
So then the question is why is nobody further up the chain doing more to help?
Simply, it’s just not a priority. Local
Forces are deemed sufficient and it’s up to commanders to enforce discipline. There’s also virtually nothing spare anywhere to send here with so much committed to other fronts. Unless Ukraine breaks out and causes a serious frontal collapse - which seems unlikely given their ability to supply over the river, it’s just an irritation in the bigger picture, that local commanders must deal with.
You cannot help but think if they could just get enough over here, if they could sustain the supply, this front could become extremely dangerous for Russia.
Yet again though, we have to remind ourselves, this is the arsehole of the Russian logistics network. It’s the most awkward and difficult area to supply and lacks roads and rail lines of any value. The only real source of supply is from Crimea by road and even that’s inside Ukraine’s ability to interdict.
It’s a front of so much promise but it’s so hard to deliver the results without air cover and and great deal of imagination to solve the supply problem.
I keep thinking of how the Israelis got over the Suez Canal in 1967 and again in 1973. But they had air superiority to protect it. In the end they never exploited their advantages before ceasefires were imposed and they withdrew.
The Ukrainians need fuel pipelines and some kind of continuous ferrying service that runs night and day to build up forces - but you can’t again, do that, without air power to make it safe.
The recent attacks on Crimean air fields also make more sense as these are the bases that are sending the aircraft to drop the glide bombs.
Ukraine needs a force big enough to send the Russians into a panic and flee, but not so big anything they do can’t be followed up and sustained.
I just don’t see how this is going to be exploited any time soon.
And neither do the Russians, which is why high command is doing nothing about it.