I don't think that we will see a lockdown of any sort in Germany this Autumn/Winter.

Why?

Simple: There is a simple general election at the end of september, so no one wnats to annoy their voters.
AAaaaaand many states made it clear that you are allowed to a almost normal life when you are fully vaccinated. A workaround is a test.

But many states make it so you have to recovered from COVID or are fully vaccinated so even a simple test won't be enough.

So prepare for 7-day-averages of 300+ infected per 100.000 inhabitants...