how do you even measure the 'chance of winning' in a one-time event
@lain Compare it to the most similar past events, recognize what affected the outcome of that event, and note which of those factors has changed from then til now
It ain’t that hard
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What I would have said but with one very important difference. Compare to **many** of the most similar events and then determine the error rate of such evaluations by the degree of dissimilarity.
