Science... or not science.
"They found that, at 7.2 degrees F (4 degrees C) above pre-industrial global temperatures, 34%of all Antarctic ice shelves (including 67%of the ice shelf area on the Antarctic Peninsula)"
Apparently science doesn't require full sentences, just wild premises that sound scary. Presumable they wanted to say "will melt" or will disappear, or something. But, when they can't even proof read before posting an "article" it comes off like social media noise. That paragraph just... wow, fire the editor.
And, where the F do they have evidence of a 4°C temperature rise?
What's your take on this kind of article?
https://www.space.com/antarctic-ice-shelf-collapse-as-earth-warms
🇳🇱
Yes, I did. That's kinda the point. I've been reading about how temperatures will climb in the coming decade... for, literally decades. I believed them over 20 years ago. Now, it's the boy who cried wolf, and Bill Gates wants to block out the sun when Vit-D deficiency is (*cough*cough*) killing people.
Yes, it's not a journal, it's not a paper, it's "news" article. And my point is, it's as suspect as ever of being bullshit. The deeper you dig, the more complex the atmosphere control factors get, and the more we realize that what we THING will bring about change has a natural buffering system we haven't calculated yet, and/or that there are much greater natural dangers to humanity than man made (like, why the fuck aren't we funding NEO research more?).
My point was (although now mute) to find out what Gene thought about such "stories" and the context he'd put them in, because, I'm curious about Gene, and honestly would love to interview him and learn what he knows, and how he thinks.
Wasn't intended to be a pro/anti global warming debate, nor a demonstration of scientific reporting. Anyway... So much for that.
Boy who cried wolf? Huh? 1) the temperatures did increase 2) they increased proportional to the CO2 we released very close to predictions.
Now what did happen, thankfully, is we slowed down our rate of dumping CO2 and other green house gases into the air. So the predictions based on "if we keep doing what we are doing" didnt come to pass, but that is exactly as expected. But the CO2 model has been spot on this whole time.
Its very easy to predict the amount the temperature will increase as a result of green house gas if we assume green house gas production remains unchanged.
The what we cant predict however is 1) how much we will reduce green house gases and avert the disaster 2) the average temperature for a specific year... but we dont need to in order to measure how much danger we are in.
"Its very easy to predict the amount the temperature will increase as a result of green house gas"
Disagree. Nothing is that easy...
"if we assume green house gas production remains unchanged."
Still, even with one condition set static, which could never actually be acomplished, there are still to many variables for anyone to claim the levels of certainty they (journalist) try to claim.
> Disagree. Nothing is that easy...
We have so much data showing the level of correlation (millions of years) and the two correlate so closely that yes, its quite easy to predict.
> Still, even with one condition set static, which could never actually be acomplished, there are still to many variables for anyone to claim the levels of certainty they (journalist) try to claim.
The point is journalists arent claiming what the future temperature will be. They are claiming what it would be if current patterns remain the same and only "on average".. this number comes from the science not from them and the science has shown to be right. We can and have easily measured the CO2 change over time and the temperature has changed to the extent predicted given the change in CO2. So all the evidence shows these predictions of how CO2 and other green house gases effect temperature is very accurately with fairly low error.
See the images attached to see just how tightly correlated CO2 and temperature is... there really isnt much doubt here.
"we have objective ways over measuring correlation and we know the order of scale to expect the noise at."
We do not have an objective measure capable of even knowing the typical noise in the system. Completely disagree.
The statistics do favor the existence of these theories. Yes. They do not provide "zero doubt" that we have fully modeled the system accurately to predict what is coming. And, thus far, a number of "predictions" have failed (albeit, because they predictions were journalistic hype, that over state the statistical significance of the data).
I do not disagree with the position that overall, it points to CO2 being a huge issue.
I disagree it's as statistically sound as "no doubt." It's more than likely, but it's at best, still around that 80% fit (just like that graph), even when you dig way, way, way deeper into that data.
lets be clear what we have zero doubt about...
1) We have zero doubt that the CO2 levels in the atmosphere is higher than they have been in the last million years at least.
2) We have zero doubt that the rate at which we are dumping CO2 into the atmosphere is many thousand times faster than has ever occured over any significant period of time in all of history.
3) We have zero doubt that CO2 in the atmosphere will significantly increase overall temperatures and that contribution is predictable.
#3 can be shown not just by looking at historic correlation but you can literally just test it in lab.. fill a jar with CO2 and one with air, stick them under a heat lamp and the one with CO2 will get much much hotter. We know and can calculate how much hotter it will get and can apply that to the atmosphere and get results that agree with the historically measured correlation as well.
There is no doubt of these 3 points to anyone with half a clue.
One having zero doubt is not a measure of the certainty of the reality of the situation, it's merely a measure of one's lack of imagination about the situation.
To some extent I agree. But there are certain things with so much overwhelming evidence zero doubt is perfectly fine. I have zero doubt the earth is not flat, I have zero doubt the sun is far away, I have zero doubt the stars are even farther away, and I have zero doubt over the 3 points I mentioned regarding climate change.
Some things are so overwhelmingly obvious given the body of evidence that having zero doubt is perfectly ok.
Just one possible counter example: there's a tiny but non-zero chance we're in a simulated universe, so the distance to the stars, and everything else in your list could possibly all be an illusion 🤷♀️
You're of course free to believe whatever you want, but we men of science should be clear-eyed about what is fact and what is faith.
"The first rule is to not fool yourself, and you are the easiest person to fool." - Richard Feynman
Actually there is a pretty decent chance of a simulated universe. But even if we are in one, doesn't change the fact that in this simulation the sun is far away and the stars are farther.
Now of course when i say things like "zero doubt" that doesnt mean that i can never under any circumstances change my mind. But you would need rather extraordinary evidence to convince me the world is flat, so it isnt something I doubt, but it is something that you are more than welcome to prove if you have such evidence.
