My % on a covid-like monkeypox pandemic has roughly dropped by half. Before it was a coin toss, now it's 25%.

@cjd that's a prediction, not a method

it seems that the severity of any given crisis is secondary upon the assumption that it is used for a political excuse to arrogate power

you then have two perspectives:

a) what is the danger of a given crisis as such?
b) what room for manouevre do the optics of said crisis allow bad actors?

tbh both seem academic if you simply focus on securing comms/money supply and personal safety/security - yet that's also a recipe for civic decay as it sort of precludes any form of politics and cedes that realm to those who would abuse it

Working hypothesis: human immune system highly resilient, even engineered bio-weapons ineffective except if actively spread. Stop spreading => no more pandemic.

Therefore severity is inversely proportional to pressure put on bad actors.