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@peterdutoit

So in essence as long as the average daily temperature over a year does not exceed 1.5 degrees above average, we will have essentially met the criteria and goverments will say we have avoided a temp rise and everything is OK.

Only it isn't ok

We are expecting 30 degrees in parts of the UK today, amber health warnings, we can't keep trying to use that 1.5 rise as a benchmark over a sustained period. Without rain we are going to have serious issues with growing food / crops, even insects need water at some point.

30 degrees is not normal for June, so what can we expect in august 35 to 40 degrees, will countries like Spain hit 40+?

From what I understand about el-nino it will just make things warmer as we are heading towards that cycle peak of warming.

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