Watching the unfolding coup in Russia with interest. The outcome will very much depend on whom the military back. One wonders whether Putin has overplayed his hand and the humiliation of the Russian military has become too much for them to bear?
(Pun loosely intended).
I think those military generals on the ground also care about the troops under their command, thanks to those at the top they are just being slautered. Something no military leader wants. So those on the front line have to follow orders as to those under then, regardless of how bad those orders are.
They also know as front line leaders it is them who are at risk of being hauled in to the ICC, for war crimes, etc while those who told them to do things, are likely to end up getting away with it. So I don't think those commanders are going to let that happen either. Following orders is not going to be a good defense in the Hague, but if they are going to stand trial so should those at the very top of the military chain of command.
Following orders is also fine, IF you have the right eqipment, training for the job, most of the first in to the Ukraine were told it was a military exercise, so were also lied to.
This war has been a disaster from the start, perhaps these front line leaders are not about to take the punishment for that.
@zleap someone has sat down and did the calculations for how this plays out and cannot see a way of it being good for them. Interesting that the coup leader is Prigozhin. He will know Putin intimately, seen him relaxed and when the guard is down. I suspect that the sums suggest that Putin would severely punish military leaders in the event of the war in Ukraine ending in defeat. That puts the generals between a rock and a hard place. It may be easier to defeat Putin than the Ukrainians.
Good point, plus Putin et al are wanted by the ICC so I would suspect there is a significant bounty for that, oddly I suspect the wagner group are equally wanted by the ICC. But putin is on an arrest warrant.
If Wagner bring and end to this AND hand over putin and other russian leaders it puts them in a huge bargaining position as they brought an end to a brutal and bloody war, that has cost thousands of lives, displaced millions of people and caused a huge amount of damage to buildings, infrastructre and the environment. They could negotiate a deal or something.
