In order to better understand where this is going, it is worth looking at the asymptomatic behavior of the relative cumulative #excessmortality (RCEM) across different countries.

RCEM describes the percentage difference in the number of people who have died since the beginning of the pandemic compared to the projected deaths for the same period if there 🇪🇸

The figure shows RCEM for Western European countries that have more than 1 million inhabitants. (2/4)

If #SARSCoV2 did not lead to deaths in the future anymore, the RCEM would approach 0% in the long-term. 🇪🇸 was the most heavily affected country in Western Europe during the first year of the pandemic, but its RCEM has since declined and is approaching a value around 10%. In contrast, 🇳🇴 had a RCEM around 0% until early 2022 and its RCEM increased to around 5%.

Interestingly, many countries like 🇨🇭, 🇫🇷, and 🇳🇱, seem to have approached a constant RCEM between 5-10% since early 2021. (3/4)

For 🇨🇭, an RCEM of 5-10% would correspond to 3,500-7,000 additional yearly deaths due to #SARSCoV2. In 2022, the Federal Statistical Office indeed reported 6,273 excess deaths.

While repeated infections with #SARSCoV2 and improved vaccines and vaccination campaigns might further reduce mortality, it could well be that #SARSCoV2 will increase overall mortality in Western European countries by 5-10% in the future. (4/4)

@c_althaus That matches my general intuitions from the following.

a) The risk of death for a naive person contracting Covid is approximately equal to 1 year’s cumulative risk from all other causes.

b) Vaccination or prior infection cuts the fatality rate of Covid by ~10-20 fold.

c) In the endemic state we can expect to catch Covid roughly once a year.

@pjie2 @c_althaus ... what is not really a nice perspective, as death is imho not the main problem of SARS-CoV-2. #LongCovid, increased risk for many other diseases and possible damage to immune system are «the elephant in the room»