頗懷疑這時候放出金融穩定法風聲,是為了接下來的違約潮與更嚴苛的資金管制做準備。前者可能是不認帳或轉移損失,後者可能是將各方面資金限制檯面化降低流動。

"中國銀行央行副行長劉桂平也在3月的1篇文章敦促改革,他指出,中國的金融規則過於分散,可以借鑑美國的《多德—弗蘭克法案》及其他主要經濟體的金融改革經驗。劉桂平認為,中國需要一致的金融穩定法。

劉桂平已向全國人大呈交提案,並建議在條件成熟時盡快出台。但北京威諾律師事務所合夥人Yang Zhaoquan指出,完成這項法案可能得花上3到5年的時間,他稱,由於風險事件接連出現,不僅損害市場,還波及金融及社會穩定性,因此迫切需要更多且強大法律工具。

《彭博》指出,像共產黨這樣執著於「掌控」的政府,在監管金融機構的行為似乎不太一致,一方面是疏忽對華融的監管,導致該公司爆發財務危機,一方面卻又警告像螞蟻集團這樣的公司影響力過大。"

ec.ltn.com.tw/article/breaking

中國巨型企業遭遇國有化威脅的同時, 逃過倒閉潮的倖存小型企業則面臨金流不足的危機.

"Close to 19% of China’s small businesses shut down last year, compared with 6.7% in 2019, according to a study released in March by Tsinghua University involving more than 50,000 companies nationwide."

"While the insolvency rate is expected to be better this year, many companies still face serious cash-flow constraints. A survey of more than 10,000 small businesses released in March by Peking University and Ant Group Co. found that 15% have sufficient cash flow to sustain operations for six months or longer, down from 19% in the third quarter of 2020, though some expect revenue to pick up as the year progresses."

wsj.com/articles/for-chinas-sm

兩年前外面認為私部門對中國經濟的貢獻:

“China’s private sector…is now serving as the main driver of China’s economic growth. The combination of numbers 60/70/80/90 are frequently used to describe the private sector’s contribution to the Chinese economy: they contribute 60% of China’s GDP, and are responsible for 70% of innovation, 80% of urban employment and provide 90% of new jobs. Private wealth is also responsible for 70% of investment and 90% of exports.”

thediplomat.com/2021/06/the-cc

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趙君碩在這篇提到了外資在中國的矛盾立場與中國生產力下降的困境:

"現在外國企業、外資金融交易員和外國政府都選擇不去面對中共經改的停滯不前然後繼續高唱「錢進」中國,粉飾太平。這也是為何中共有更多誘因拖延經濟改革而只是在口頭上堅持改革開放:如果真的開始改革使得經濟環境因為體質的調整而暫時惡化,那麼這些外商、外資和外國政府反而就必須要暫停大舉錢進中國的計畫,免得落人口實。"

"自從習近平上任以來,債務已經從GDP的225﹪上升到至少276﹪。在2012年 要投入6塊人民幣換取1塊人民幣的產出,到了2020 要投入10塊才有1塊的產出。經濟成長率也從約9.6﹪降到疫情前的低於6%。生產力的增加,也就是提升產出但不用多投入勞動力或是其他資源,對於GDP的貢獻,到今天已只佔6%成長率中的1%而已了,還有更悲觀的估計認為是貢獻是零。但在1990年代生產效率的提高約佔GPD成長幅度的一半。到了2000年代第一個十年也還有GDP成長率的1/3左右。這些現象都透露經濟成長已經失去動力。"

vocus.cc/article/60e9fcf4fd897

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