"From the Analyst"

LIBERATION, LOSSES, MISSILES & GRAIN

There is absolute confirmation now that Stariomorske has been liberated. Extensive video footage shows Ukrainians wandering about in the village - they are mostly shocked at the mess they find. The Russians have destroyed or removed almost everything, it’s little more than ruins and neglect. The village is extremely rural, surrounded by green farmland and fields as far as you can see. And everyone has gone.
All around the village lay the detritus of war. Dozens of T-72’s, T-80, a BMD command vehicle, a minelaying truck loaded with mines. These are actually quite rare and there are said to only be a dozen in the entire Russian army. Various types of BTR, BMP, all wrecks. Some are the specific type of lighter BMP3 used by the VDV Airborne forces. The Ukrainians are clearly shocked at the state of everything. They have a lot to say about the state of Russian culture and any one who could do what’s been done here.
Overall yesterday the Ukrainians managed to hunt down another 30 artillery pieces and destroy them, sending the total towards 660 for the month at current rates - add that to 711 from the month before - a truly unsustainable loss level.
Quite how far the advances have reached we won’t know until the mappers catch up. DeepState is almost useless except as a valuable historical record because they’re two days behind for OPSEC reasons, but others will catch-up during today.
Over at Taganrog, a small town in the coast west of Rostov on Don, the target of the ballistic missile was an FSB data centre believed to coordinate the activities of Ukrainians in the occupied territories. This site may have contributed to anti-partisan activities and surveillance efforts and was almost certainly regarded as being out of danger. It’s time the Russians learned that what they think is safe is not. The missile warhead can clearly be seen on several videos and looks like it’s part of the new longer ranged Ukrainian domestically produced Grom or Hrim series already known to exist. It’s been almost a year since these were last identifiably used (suspected use is one thing but actual confirmation is another) and they may well have a longer ranged version by now.
Before we go on we need to address the Surovikin line as it’s been called.
This is a belt of trenches, mines and dragons teeth across much of the rear lines. Some of it is clearly incomplete. Much of it isn’t even manned - it’s impossible to do so. The idea is to fill it with defenders as attackers come towards it, but you have to be fast and agile and able, to find troops to man it you don’t need elsewhere.
In history there have, since the development of the tank concept, been almost no examples of defences that have not been breached and overcome, usually rapidly. Often they are bypassed, because once a key section is opened up, the very nature of the fixed defences leaves them useless and the defending troops are vulnerable to being surrounded, often forcing quick retreats.
What’s happened so far is that heavily rural areas on hills and in valleys have provided huge opportunity for defence. The Ukrainians are now not far from the other side of that area, approaching what was described as the Ukrainian Steppes, before irrigation improved the situation. This is more open, generally flatter and far more conducive to armoured warfare. The Russians know that once they break though into this area their days are numbered.
However it comes with its own challenges- not least of which are Ukraine’s own ability to supply its forces as their once short logistics lines begins to stretch, in areas of limited and poor roads, all likely mined. The reason the Ukrainians ran out of steam last year in the Kharkiv area was they just couldn’t keep up with the demands of supply as the front moved so quickly - any army would find this a challenge.
The Russians will be moving closer to their supply hubs as they retreat - so how they retreat and conduct themselves will be key to how long they hold out. they’re screwed.
CONTINUES…/