CONTINUES…./
If they take their time and withdraw in an orderly fashion, it could take far longer to end the occupation. This is why the destruction of Russian logistics is, remains, and will be, a continuous and vital component to this offensive.
Even in the event the Ukrainian forces reach Crimea that’s a whole other issue. Just take a look at how long it took the Germans to break Russian defences in WW2 there and how hard it was for the Russians to get the Germans out again. Even if the bridge is unusable Russia still has its navy and before the start of the war they transferred several of their Ropucha assault landing ships from the Baltic to the Black Sea before Turkey closed the straits. They still have a means of moving troops bridge or no bridge.
Now grain. Let’s be clear about the Turkish position. Never ever did they say the would guard grain ships. It was indicated they might be open to it. This was if anything a negotiating ploy to persuade Russia to play ball. It failed because Putin wasn’t going to be put in a corner by Erdogan, or risk hitting NATO warships (Turkey is in NATO). So he called Erdogan’s bluff by destroying the capacity for Ukraine to export any grain, so no loading or port infrastructure = no ships to need protection. Yesterday Ukraine appeared to bow to the inevitable and said it’s grain export through the Black Sea wouldn’t resume until the war is over. However the EU has agreed to facilitate the export of grain through European ports, by road and rail - Croatia even offered its own ports to help out. So all is not lost. Bare in mind that while the biggest single customer was actually China (32.2%), the next biggest customers were actually Spain, Italy, Portugal & Ireland in the EU. Less than 20% went to the Middle East and Africa. However that last 20% went to markets where without it nobody eats at all in many cases, and that’s why it mattered so much.
Today is a big day. We should start to see how things develop.
Patience, vigilance, believe in The Plan (and its flexibility!) Because as then General Eisenhower once said, “Nothing goes wrong like a plan”. It’s how you deal with it and react when it happens that matters most.
Slava Ukraine 🇺🇦!
To Victory!