THE ANALYST
WAR IN THE BLACK SEA

Ukraine has changed forever the way we regard naval dominance in confined waters.
The Iranians started the process some time ago but have never really gotten to grips with it in the same way. The Persian Gulf navies - the US amongst them from its base in Bahrain must be wondering how long before they imitate Ukraine.
The Ukrainians have used as many as 7 different types of
OWAUSV’s (One Way Attack Unmanned Surface Vehicles).
They’re cheap, surprisinglong ranged and generally low profile. Most of them are derived from jet skis - either mostly or using their components in specialised moulded fibreglass, or heavy duty plastic.
Starlink has been
essential but this may have to change as the mercurial right wing self appointed judge and jury Musk, is refusing Ukrainians requests to turn it on over Crimea. If the US government wasn’t paying the bills he’d turn it off over the rest of Ukraine.
The Russian navy with its Kilo class submarines and missile frigates has been kept away from Ukrainian shores by the lessons of the Moskva. Coastal batteries of Neptune missiles sank that last year, and there’s every reason to think those batteries are more dangerous and numerous now than they were back then.
Add to that the ability to reach deep into the Black Sea - almost at Russia’s Caucasus coast, and the danger to the fleet, is significant. There have been no less than five attacks far closer to Russia than Ukraine. All of them made by Ukrainian OWAUSV’s.
The use of the larger bomb carrying versions that have now twice taken down the Kerch bridge have demonstrated a clear capability that can’t be ignored. The bridge is designed in such a way that only something exploding under it can lift it off its supports.
Attacks on Sevastopol harbour have been humiliating lessons and largely forces the Russians to keep their big ships well away. However they have been redeveloping the old Cold War underground naval base that had until recently been relegated to
museum status.
In the skies of course the Russians have things their own way, Ukraine has no means of challenging their air dominance in the depths of the sea yet. But its sea and air drones have caused mayhem up and down the peninsula. The Russians struggle to protect key bridges and facilities even with their vaunted air defences.
International forces from several nations regularly prowl the airspace over the sea, which Russia hates. It’s tried to dissuade them by dangerous behaviours and intimidation. It hasn’t worked.
Turkey particularly watches what the Russians do with considerable vigilance. There is a long held enmity over Russia and its efforts to break out of the Black Sea. Once back in history, Crimea was the land that Jason and his Argonauts stole the Golden Fleece (sheep skins were used to trap gold in rivers) from the King of Colchis, Greeks and Romans settled here. Crimea was Ottoman Turkish (and much of Ukraine, as the Khanate of Krim) - Britain and France fought Russia here in the early 1850’s. The founder of modern nursing, Florence Nightingale made her name here treating the troops. This is the land where the 600 road into the valley of death beneath Russian guns. It’s where the Germans spent months dragging the worlds biggest rail guns to crack the forts at Sevastopol. It’s where Stalin, Churchill and Roosevelt laid the boundaries that would mark the Cold War in Europe. Crimea has meaning.
Crimea controls the Black Sea. It also controls most of Ukraine. The only country that can and should own Crimea is Ukraine. Its national security will never be secured until it takes it back.
The control of the Black Sea will be determined not by ships but by ownership of Crimea and whoever can keep an enemy’s ships at bay.
In Turkey a new Ukrainian frigate is being slowly fitted out. It’s not likely to enter service until after the war, replacing the old Russian Krivak-II that was scuttled as the Russians advanced. Eventually Ukraine will build it sisters herself.
Russia will never be allowed to dominate the Black Sea again.
CONTINUE/