From "The Analyst":

FRONTLINE UPDATE NOV 21-22

Winter has arrived. A lot of heavy rain followed by snow struck much of the frontline - especially the northern sector. Fighting has reduced significantly and some of the early video coming out shows military vehicles sunk in mud up to their door sills. It’s going to make the conditions in trenches truly awful.
According to the ISW the Russians have more equipment in the northern sector along with manpower than they do even in the Avdivka sector but are showing no signs of using it. They may even be attempting to carry out training in an effort to lift troop quality before next years offensives.
The attacks against the northern line of Klieshievka are continuing with VDV units being largely responsible. They continue to press Ukraine hard and make daily incremental gains.
As I said yesterday the Russians have regained the overall initiative, especially in the Bakhmut region. It now remains to be seen how desperately both sides want to take or hold territory and what resources they’re willing to use to do so.
Ukraine continues to take small amounts of territory in the Horlivka area and is now well east of the 2015 control line. There still appears to be no immediate objective here - why now and what are they aiming at?
Avdivka continues a slow deterioration in Ukraine positions. In the central and most easterly part of the salient the Russians have broken through defences in the industrial area and towards what was (as we would call it in the UK) a motorway services area. Snow and poor visibility have hampered operations, but it has to be acknowledged that Russia has been unusually coordinated in its air-ground operation and artillery in this area.
Further south, Marinka is now showing signs of a Ukrainian withdrawal. The Russians have pushed them out of 80% the town which lies NW-SE along reservoirs and a river. It’s been hotly contested for months with a back and forth front, but this time the Russian momentum has been stronger.
Kherson is causing the Russians a dilemma. They don’t have reserves in the area so they have to risk taking troops from other fronts - which they haven’t been allowed to do. As a result they’re limited by what they can do to oust the Ukrainians but seem united to try. The Ukrainians have expanded their holdings in the west of Krynky and along the coastline of the south bank, they have at least two crossing points and persist in getting supplies across. The terrain is hard for both sides but it’s easier to be in the defence role because the axis of possible attacks is so limited as the Russians have found. It’s why Ukraine chose the area in the first place. With the weather closing in both sides have to face a potential deadlock for several weeks until the freeze of winter hits hard? Just remember that while that’s traditional last year it really didn’t happen- climate change seems to have milder conditions and it’s mud more than snow.
The one thing we do know is the Russians are badly coordinated here. Morale is very low, commanders are indecisive and lack resources.
So overall Russia has the initiative except in the Kherson region, but the weather looks like it’s making itself felt which is why so much fighting died down in the last 48 hours. Visibility and movement have been hampered dramatically.
If the front slows and the weather cools it won’t be long before the missiles start flying at cities. What I wonder, will Ukraine use in retaliation? This year’s missile and drone campaigns won’t go unanswered I think.

Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦!