From "The Analyst":

FRONTLINE UPDATE - BATTLE IN KHERSON SET TO EXPAND

NORTH

Russia claims Ukraine counter attacked in the Lyman-Pershy area of the front but there’s been no apparent movement in the lines of control.
The northern front has had fire exchanges but little else.

BAKHMUT

Russia appears to have made more gains by the Berkhivka reservoir. North of Bakhmut Russia has made some gains but there’s a great deal of confusion over who took what. The Russians claim to control more than others think they do.
What the Russians seem to be after are the ridge that overlooks Kremove looking into Bakhmut. Would be very unhelpful for Ukraine to loose it because then the Russians would have oversight westward into lower Ukrainian territory. Russia claims to have captured Kremove but that’s contested.
Klieshievka to Andrivka is under a great deal of pressure and the Russians remain persistent.

AVDIVKA

Heavy combat near the water treatment plant. Ukraine seems to have pushed the Russians back here - the Russians admit it.
The rest of the frontline remains stable.
The northern element of the pincer has allegedly been more active but there’s no confirmation.
The battles around the coking plant are repetitive, Russians use 20-30 soldiers with and without vehicles in support, persistently pushing and attriting the defenders. However the Russian losses are high.

SOUTH

Russians have made small gains along small areas of the front. Russians are making a lot of claims around Robotyne but there’s little to confirm what’s happening.

KHERSON

Russia pounds the Krynky positions with aerial bombs, but Russians don’t make any efforts to storm it because they can’t.
Russian soldiers are not happy about their situation here. Their morale is very low, they’re terrified of being captured as they think Ukraine will dismember them while they’re alive. They get fed such lies constantly. They also complain that the bombing raids are largely ineffective because nobody takes any notice of what the ground forces tell them to target, with inter-unit and inter-service communications and liaison being nonexistent.
Ukraine on the other hand launched a major HIMARS strike on command posts, air defence and artillery positions and advanced further into the forest south Krynky. Such attacks are usually the precursor to some kind of frontline attack- it looks like the Ukrainians may be on the move.
The bad weather has allowed the Ukrainians to get their rotations and reinforcements done without too much interference if any.
The Ukrainians appear ready to attack and expand the front - bright sunny weather has returned although it is very cold.
Partisans also provided the target for an important meeting of local police and military leaders which resulted in multiple deaths and injuries from a HIMARS missile.
There seems no doubt that the Ukrainians are up to something big. The question is are the Russians able to do anything about it?
I suspect the Ukrainians will try to dramatically expand their bridgehead but only as far as they’re able to defend with ease. They won’t just give the Russians any advantage and besides they probably don’t have the manpower over the river yet to break out in a major way. I think eventually that will happen, but it’s a game of take and consolidate - without rattling Russian commanders so much up the chain they turn their full focus here.

Overall, it’s relatively stable, but still very challenging. I’m getting very concerned at the ammo situation. Ukraine is clearly restraining use and aid seems ever further away. Europe isn’t doing enough no matter what it tries to pretend.

SLAVA UKRAINI 🇺🇦!