TheOldGuy @TheOldGuy@social.cleverlibre.org

24 tanks and 850 Orcs
https://t.me/WarriorsUkrainian/13808

Obama quote
https://t.me/visegrad24official/2245

Goodnight

There are a few Republicans announcing retirement.

https://www.palmerreport.com/analysis/dropping-like-flies-2/52974/

Please judge, its a school day.
https://www.palmerreport.com/analysis/ivanka-trump-just-stepped-in-it/52976/

Mike Johnson is a ChristoFascist
https://www.palmerreport.com/analysis/just-exactly-who-is-mike-johnson/52969/

Just say NO to Christofascists
https://www.jefftiedrich.com/p/christofascists-and-fascist-fascists?utm_source=substack&publication_id=1162742&post_id=138435812&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&utm_campaign=email-share&triggerShare=true&isFreemail=true&r=70k1h

The U.S. will begin negotiations with China on Nuclear arms control
https://mil.in.ua/en/news/us-and-china-to-start-negotiations-on-nuclear-weapons/

Republicans I can actually agree with.
https://t.me/United24media/14980

Crimea is Ukraine
https://t.me/United24media/14976

DeathSantis go home!
https://www.palmerreport.com/analysis/go-home-ron-desantis-youre-done/52961/

DeepState reports about their analysis of the front as of the end of the day on November 1, 2023

▶️ Belomoskov, Siver and Belgorod shades — hostile DRGs have become more active near DKU in Chernihiv Oblast, we remind you about security measures .

▶️ Svativskyi shade — the line of demarcation north of Masyutivka and to DKU along the Oskil River has been specified. Katsapas had partial success south of Masyutivka. First of all, this happened due to the advantage in manpower. The enemy attacked Sinkivka - was unsuccessful. Clashes continue near Pershotravnevoy and Orlyanka. The enemy rotates personnel and refreshes forces in many areas of the offensive. We should expect new large-scale offensives against the Defense Forces.

▶️ Bakhmut direction — Bohdanivka and Klishchiivka districts have been specified. The enemy is trying to counterattack near Klishchiivka and Andriivka with relatively fresh forces.

▶️ Avdiivskyi tint — near Novokalynovy, the enemy had partial success. The Stepovoye district has been clarified: the railway line became the demarcation line. Katsaps are trying to enter the AKHZ, but they cannot gain a foothold. They are forced to either flee or die. Instead, the enemy is improving logistics, turning Krasnohorivka into an important stronghold. On the southern face, katsaps continue to exert pressure in the Opytny and Vodyany regions. 53 OMBr has to repel these attacks every day. Katsaps want to achieve success at the expense of exhaustion. The situation is difficult. Near Maryinka, the enemy's attempts to improve the tactical position were unsuccessful.

▶️ Berdyansky shade — no changes, clashes continue near Priyutny. The enemy launched an assault near the village of Shevchenko, with partial success.

▶️ Zaporizhia flavor — near Robotyny, the Defense Forces managed to occupy one of the heights. The enemy rotates and introduces new formations into the battle. At the same time, our forces are actively counterattacking. Unfortunately, in this battle, the number of infantry is decisive and, accordingly, the enemy can suffer heavy losses for a long time.

▶️ Tavrian shade - fighting continues in Krynky.

🗂 Analytical note. The situation is difficult along the entire contact line. The enemy continues to use the advantage in manpower and equipment. He does not have significant success, but he fully possesses the initiative. The main task of the Defense Forces for the near future is to establish effective defense in places where there is none. If this is not done, then new breakthroughs will appear, which will have to be patched with something.

From the Analyst:

General Zaluzhny essentially declared the end of the offensive and that the start of a new ‘positional fight’ (military speak for stalemated winter fighting) has begun, in an interview with The Economist.
The situation overall changed very little - the northern front seems to see a lot of fire fights only for nothing to actually happen. Russia just keeps pushing and getting pushed back.
In Kherson we saw some extraordinary evidence of camouflage boats - literally floating moving islands of huge bushes being used to transport soldiers over the Dnepr. You have to laugh at them because of their appearance but they’ve turned out to be exceptionally effective. It’s the innovation that never stops making you smile.
The bizarre realities of Ukraine being responsible for the transshipment of Russian gas to Hungary is coming to an end next year. The Russians aren’t paying Ukraine to ship it and Ukraine says it will stop doing it when the legal contract runs out at the end of January. Ukraine seems to have let it continue as a favour to Hungary - but with Orban being so anti Ukraine it seems they no longer think it matters.
There is growing evidence that both sides are preparing for a major missile and drone conflict over the winter. Russia keeps testing drone pathways and looking for ever more complex ways of getting its cruise missile missions around the air defence radars or at least confusing them. One likely tactic is to flood the sky with drones and cheaper decoy missiles without warheads, then having used up the first set of defence missiles quickly follow it up with actual warheads that can slip past them.
The Russians know that the Ukraine’s air defences have virtually doubled. It’s quite likely they’ll even attempt to attack Patriot systems directly - yet a full System can be spread out over an area as wide as 10km.
One of the biggest issues is going to be missile supply for all of the systems. Patriots are ideal for anti-ballistic or aero-ballistic defences and keeping aircraft away. They can be used against cruise missiles but that’s not their priority. At $4.2 million each Patriot missiles aren’t cheap. However compared to the $20 million plus to rebuild a power generation system it’s a lot cheaper.
Drone killing systems are generally much shorter ranged which means you need many of them to cover off likely targets. Some sources say that virtually every surviving Gepard is now in Ukraine and Germany is producing more than enough ammunition for them.
Ukraine has gone to some lengths to modernise its electricity grid with a lot of western help and its can often be rapidly switched and redistributed to prevent such long blackouts. However the power stations themselves are like to be heavily targeted. It’s going to be a tough winter. It’s not just electricity. Many of these old soviet states use communal heating systems - a central heat generation facility that pumps hot water or steam into radiators covering several blocks of apartments. These are a favourite drone target.
This year it won’t all be one way. Russia has clearly been rebuilding its stockpiles and so has Ukraine. Russia must know that missiles and drones of Ukraine origin are going to fall all over western Russia this time. We know they expect it because they’ve installed S-400’s near their command centre at Rostov on Don as one example.
This is another aspect that Ukraine will be predicting- Russia has largely left off attacking Ukraine central government offices and command centres. I don’t think that’s going to continue. The only thing that’s stopping them is the fear that major landmarks in Moscow will come under attack - eventually one will get through and that frightens them - the symbolism of weakness that would show is impossible to ignore.
There have been changes too. The Shaheed drones have become noticeably quieter and use more sophisticated composites to reduce detection - although latest technologies are sensitive enough to pick up key components such as the motor and warhead, they will be harder to hit. (1/2)

From The Analyst:

MILITARY UPDATE

The northern front had a number of actions but little took place that changed anything.
The primary news in the east is that Russia has for some reason decided to activate offensive operations around Bakhmut, with artillery and suicide drones being used in large numbers though apparently to little effect.
This shows you how compartmentalised the Russian military can be. Your supply box gets filled with what you’re given and you get to use it. Even when your next door neighbours box in the middle of an offensive against Avdivka is suffering from a lack of artillery, ammunition and suicide drones. Nobody asks you to send them where they’re needed and yet the high command still expects that offensive to be pressed with all the vigorousness they have come to expect, resources expended or not.
North of Klieshievka and south of Andrivka Ukraine has continue to push past the railway line which to all intents and purposes is now under their control from Bakhmut south to Zelenopilia.
Little has changed at Avdivka. The Russians are on the cusp of entering the coking plant in the north east of it. Being in the vicinity however is not the same as being able to enter it. It’s believed to be heavily fortified and will take an age and heavy resources. Frankly I wouldn’t bother with it. I think they will try to take the land to west of it and get closer to the urban areas south west of the plant.
Little else happened yesterday. Ukraine made small gains west of Robotyne as they widen the salient.
Kherson continues to cause the Russians huge grief. Them Ukrainians seem to have retained their position at Krynky. Opsec is super high and nobody on the Ukrainian side is saying anything. However the Russians leak like a sieve and there confusion is what stands out. The Ukrainian forces seem to have them running around like headless chickens trying to expunge one position only to find they’ve gone and they’re somewhere else. Ukraine is said to be shipping as many as 60-70 men over in small boats at regular intervals creating a growing force.
It needs to be noted that yesterday Russian losses passed the estimated 300,000 mark. That means Ukraine’s is probably around a third of that. It’s a depressing figure for either of them. Not that Russian government cares at all. To them it’s just a statistic.

Slava Ukraine 🇺🇦!

https://t.me/WarriorsUkrainian/13707
Daily losses.

Ukraine's Naftogaz plans to stop transiting Russian gas to Europe after the contract expires in 2024, according to its CEO Oleksiy Chernyshov.

According to him, Ukraine is ready to abandon gas transit, but does not want to put its EU partners at risk.

⁉️Why is Russian gas still transiting through Ukraine?

The answer is simple — exclusively for the support of Ukraine's European colleagues.

"We have a contract, the terms of which we must fulfill. We can't break the deal with our European partners.", CEO Oleksiy Chernyshov explained.

At the same time, it is known that the EU plans to completely abandon the consumption of Russian gas by 2027, therefore it does not insist on the continuation of Ukrainian transit.

There have been no requests from European companies to continue transit.

The contract ends at the end of next year, and the story of gas transit will then come to its end.

The Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia decided to increase the key rate by 200 basis points - to 15%

The decision to immediately increase the key rate by 2%, to 15%, becomes not an economic, but a political action. The consequences of raising the rate could be devastating for the Russian economy:

▪️already on the eve of the rate increase, banks almost completely stopped lending, including to government agencies;

▪️ compression of the lending market due to tightening conditions will not only reduce the volume of issuances, but will actually create barrier conditions for all enterprises and individuals who do not apply for preferential products;

▪️for enterprises this threatens to reduce opportunities to expand activities and stop investment programs;

▪️the money will go to the defense industry, which does not produce consumer goods and does not export manufactured products.

Accordingly, money is withdrawn from everywhere and thrown into this black hole, which further depresses production. At the same time, military salaries are greatly increased, and considerable payments are made for the wounded and dead (about 1 million wounded and 300 thousand killed ). And this is also money that does not produce anything, it is not tied to the production of any products.

As a result, Russians should expect a shortage of products in all consumer sectors and a jump in prices. There is more money in the hands of the population due to “helicopter payments”. It is logical that imbalances, deficits, and unsecured monetary demand arise everywhere. All this destroys the economy.

Raising the rate is an attempt to dampen negative processes.
But a legitimate question arises: what then? The original problems remain, and the Central Bank cannot influence them at all.