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I'm no virologist but in my mind I dont understand how quarantining a city will address the problem with the #coronavirus outbreak.
The whole outbreak started with one person of course. with it infecting a whole city even if the outbreak is entirely limited to that city how will quarantining help long term. Eventually they need to remove the quarantine and vaccines are years away. When they eventually do if even one person has the disease still then it will just start al. over again.
Obviously it makes sense to qtine individuals who traveled from an effected area for a set number of days to see if they are carrying the disease before releasing them. That sort of quarantine makes sense. But a whole city, not sure how that will help.
@Halbeard Yes I could see that, an attempt to make it look like they are doing something when in fact they are not.
I wonder how many infected people who just have the flu and not the coronavirus are being attacked mistakenly, probably a lot.
@freemo there's some proper mismanagement as well
don't know if there are more such cases.
@Halbeard When it comes to china I expect mismanagement at every turn.
If the quarantine is removed whilst cases still remain, states will close their borders. @freemo
@snrckrd There will never be 0 cases. The number of cases might decrease over time but it wont fall to 0.
True, so are the only two options a prolonged quarantine until a vaccine is developed, or a global pandemic? @freemo
@snrckrd At this point, yes it would seem so.
It’s likely that it will never go away and be added to the club which includes the seasonal flu and the common cold. In that case a vaccine won’t be 100% effective, just like the current flu vaccine, because of small mutations. @freemo
@snrckrd Maybe, thats hard to say.. what makes you think the coronavirus would be like the flu, and not like small pox? Some disease we can vaccinate against and your good for life, others we cant. So why would you presume coronavirus is in one category or the other?
The reason the flu and common cold dont have vaccines that last a life time is due to recombination more so than just mutations. small pox doesnt recombinant, flu does, coronavirus im not so sure.
@freemo I think the idea is if we know that the incubation period is, say, 2 weeks and the patient is no longer infectious after, say, 5 weeks.
You close off a population and wait 2 weeks, if no one shows any new symptoms you only have the currently infected left.
Wait another 5 weeks, and if no one is still ill, and no one is showing symptoms, you can be fairly confident that the disease will have died out in that population
@M0YNG Yea but when we talk about large populations thats not how it works. The cat is out of the bag so to speak. Quarantining large areas never work because there will literally never be a point in the future (unless a vaccine is created) where the infected rate will reach 0.
Quantines work and are logically with individuals and small groups because in those settings you expect infection rates to reach 0. In larger populations that will never happen however so it isnt effective.
@freemo maybe just the chinese way of dealing with the ensuing social unrest? I've seen some videos of mobs in wuhan that are on a witch hunt barring the doors of apartments belonging to the infected. This behavior might even be socially accepted there, I don't know.