uspol, election prediction, not positive tho
Voting is over, so my prediction, but CW it's not pleasant:
I predict a *3.5 million* vote loss by Trump... in the popular vote.
And I expect him to win the electoral college.
I think Democrats are underestimating just how the system is gamed.
Hope to God I'm wrong.
🇳🇱
uspol, election prediction, not positive tho
@cwebber Honestly I expect the opposite. So far he has been ahead on the popular vote, but he hasnt flipped a single state that he has needed to win, so will likely still loose the electoral which the dems are ahead on despite the strong dem states not getting called yet.
I do wonder though, the people who are against the electoral college, if trump wins the popular and looses the electorate how many of them do you think will still be against the electoral college if that happens?
uspol, election prediction, not positive tho
@freemo @cwebber I'm not much for prediction, but if Biden manages to win, he's not going to do it while losing the popular vote. There's a reason only Republican candidates have managed that feat in recent years.
Also, the electoral college must go. It's an antiquated system that is no longer (if it ever was) needed.
uspol, election prediction, not positive tho
As of right now biden is ahead of trump by 91 electoral votes (209 vs 118) yes Trump has a significant lead in popular votes with a lead of 2 million over biden (46 M vs 48 M).
Hard to say how things will wind up, but at the very least this shows it is entirely possible for the democrats to beat out the republicans with the electorate and not the popular. The electoral college does **not** favor republicans, though it will in some elections and not in others.
re: uspol, election prediction, not positive tho
Hard to say, only one battleground state has enough in to call. the problem is trump would need to win every battleground state, every state that was called as "likely" for him and take a few likely democrat states as well. However so far of all the states with enough votes in to call it trump hasnt been able to take a single battleground state let alone a democrat state yet.. BUT he is in the lead in many of the states that arent able to be called yet. So he may still pull it off.
re: uspol, election prediction, not positive tho
re: uspol, election prediction, not positive tho
How close a state is to call doesnt really have to do with its voting patterns. We call that a forecast. We determine if a state is close to call or not based on the percentage of votes in, not the tendency for the state to vote one way or the other.
re: uspol, election prediction, not positive tho
re: uspol, election prediction, not positive tho
re: uspol, election prediction, not positive tho
re: uspol, election prediction, not positive tho
The disparity only exists if you don't look at the demos yourself and trust the news reports. It's not looking too good for Biden.
Though Biden could technically win... just saying, I wouldn't put money on it at this point.