🎓 Dr. Freemo 🇳🇱 @freemo@social.cleverlibre.org

@admitsWrongIfProven

excess mortality is much harder to measure and is very case specific. No what i mean is the chance of you dying directly from the disease, if all else remains the same, is higher from excessive mask usage over time.

Obviously this is an over simplification and the actual details are rather complex. But when you have a disease like covid that mutates rapidly and has a limited period of immunity, and when you have vaccines that are many generations behind (and really cant keep up due to mutation rate).. then yea, masks lead to a better chance youll die.

The reasoning makes sense when you think about it.. If you take the 1st gen vaccine, then dont wear a mask, you are constantly exposed to the virus and its mutations.. so you are constantly catching the virus but you are also constantly asymptomatic since your natural defenses are constantly being exposed and learning.

@Pat

@jonnypencils@social.retrodon.net @jimblimey@toots.jimblimey.com @evolutional @zxdunny

Would be happy to add you to the UFoI. Now is the time to join as it will be a much more difficult and slower process once we officially launch. But for now the founding members have a much easier time getting in.

Check out: https://UFoI.org

Being a single user instance isnt a problem either.

@Pat

Yup, tons of things we can speculate... The real problem is all the factors we cant forsee... For all we know there is a food they eat that protects against covid, who knows.... most of what we do in the world of statistics is to proctect us against the things we arent aware of.

@admitsWrongIfProven

@Pat

There may be some validity to that depending on how you look at it. But I'd have to do more research to say.

Generally when you use masks excessively for any disease the number of cases go down but the mortality rate goes up, particularly over the long term. In fact if you wear respirators too much or are excessive about wiping germs you have a much higher chance of autoimmune disorders too.

So it is reasonable to think china may have fewer overall cases, but more people are dying either directly of COVID or of developed auto immune diseases.

I know off hand the morality rate of covid in China is twice that of the USA, without a proper study I cant say what the real death toll is, but there is enough to suggest there may be some validity here, MAYBE... need to see a proper study.

@admitsWrongIfProven

@Pat I never made any claim in this thread that respirators **arent** effective... or even that japan didnt make good choices... all im saying is the evidence you presented to back this up is invalid.. perhaps good evidence would support your conclusion though.

@admitsWrongIfProven

Weather, genetics, access to water, food, nutrition, physical fitness of the population, age distributions, insularity, there are hundreds if not thousands of factors.

More over it is the factors we dont know.. there is a raeson experts in tthe field do it the way they do and reject the analysis approach you did.. just because you cant think of the hidden confounding variables doesnt mean they arent there.

@Pat @trinsec

@Pat

No, they dont, again, invalid analysis... There are **tons** of other factors, many of which have nothing to do with decisions the government or the people made, which may attribute to the absolute results... assuming there is causation is known-bad-analysis.

@trinsec

@34a3cff1fb40

There doesnt appear to be an account there by that name.

@101101000

@Pat

As a pro statistician I can say this is a very common failing people apply to tons of subjects... You can **not** compare absolute rates between countries and presume it is the result of a policy, thats considered invalid analysis.

When we analyze policy we look at the rate of change in the background incident rate immediately following a change in policy. You must compare the country to itself at an earlier period before the policy was adopted. It is the only way to reasonably hold most other factors constant.

@trinsec

@realcaseyrollins

You kidding me, fediblock is a horrific choice... the person who runs that blocks anyone she doesnt like, has been caught explicitly suppressing evidence that disagrees with her, and has provided evidence that later was proven to be a lie and she kept it anyway.

Look at the talk page for people calling her out on QOTO for example.

@thatonecalculator @roland

@thatonecalculator

well it lists when the block was last seen, so while it does hold onto blocks removed it lets you know the block was removed at least.

Not sure if thats a good or bad feature itself mind you, just saying.

@roland @realcaseyrollins

@realcaseyrollins

I was linked directly to the page with the list, I dont even think its in the footnote there.

@thatonecalculator @roland

@realcaseyrollins

Yea this is tht vile KF list that i didnt know was written by KF and used once and everyone got mad (and I understand why)... I dont touch this list since I learned it was written by KF.

@thatonecalculator @roland

@EubieDrew hey, would you like me to add you as a **registered** member on UFoI.. it basically means you get a profile page that links back to your profile so you can add a verified link to show people you are a part of the eUFoI (you are automatically an unregistered member regardless).

See my mastodon profile for a link to my UFoI profile as an example.