There are (at least) three groups of voters whom #Starmer is alienating with his continued tacit support for the #GazaGenocide:
1. A majority of Muslims;
2. A substantial number of Jews;
3. A much broader community of people with a strong commitment to human rights and an ethical foreign policy.
These groups are not individually electorally significant, but taken together they may be.
#1 of ?
In Scotland, of course, many of those who turn away from Labour to express their dissent over the #GazaGenocide will turn to the SNP; and this is especially so in West Central Scotland where Labour were expecting to make a breakthrough which they will now very likely not make.
The situation in England is more interesting.
#2 of ?
The #NewsAgents podcast reported this evening that there is in preparation a well funded slate of independent candidates preparing to run against Labour, implicitly seeking the Muslim vote. I don't know what their sources are for this, but they tend to be well informed.
#3 of ?
The News Agents: Why are Labour defending a conspiracy theorist?
Episode webpage: https://www.global.com/
Of course it's possible that if money is being thrown at running a slate of Muslim candidates in seats that #Labour need to win, the source of that money is #Conservative mischief makers. But even if that is the case, there is a possibility of something hopeful and positive here.
#4 of ?
We don't know how large the proportion of British Jews is who oppose #genocide, but I would guess that it is large. Similarly, we don't know what proportion is of Labour voters generally see human rights and an ethical foreign policy as must-have issues, but again I'd guess it isn't small. Put those groups together with the majority of Muslims and the young #PeoplesMomentum activists whom #Labour has deliberately alienated, and you have a formidable block.
#5 of ?
If the left in England can forge these groups into a coherent voting block – and I don't think that would be difficult to do – then you could see a new left party emerge this year which could take seats from #Labour in Inner London, Bradford, Burnley, Rochdale, perhaps Birmingham and other places; and this in turn could force #Starmer to accept the SNP and this new left party as coalition partners to keep the #Conservatives out.
#6 of ?
I'd be interested in your thoughts on how many waivering #Labour voters might go #Green instead:
- Greens more left wing
- Greens called early for an end to #GazaGenocide
- There's a #ClimateEmergency that's starting to get into people's vision
It will bring an interesting dynamic as well as some additional independent candidates.
@StingrayBadger I see #Greens as quite possibly part of this same mix. However, from a Scottish viewpoint we see English Greens with representatives in the House of Lords and a very equivocal position on #Trans rights, and so it's not very easy to see how radical they actually are.
I have a great deal of respect for @CarolineLucas , but she's standing down this election; I have no clear idea of what other English Greens actually believe.
@simon_brooke @StingrayBadger @CarolineLucas
Believe about what specifically, other than trans rights? On that issue, we stand with our trans brothers and sisters, and like to think that we can be part of a constructive and evidence-based debate that affirms all women, natal and trans.
In more general terms, we are on the left, but there are significant cultural differences with the established, urban-centric left.
Much of the Greens' electoral support comes from rural, conservative-minded folk who have become radicalised by environmental concerns. This is a political constituency that should be cultivated, but I don't see the urban left taking much interest in rural and small-town communities.
@hesgen @StingrayBadger @CarolineLucas as someone on the rural left myself, I sympathise.