The #Covid19UK death figures today are slightly disappointing, at 888 (total now 15464). They show an increase on yesterday, though they are still consistent with a peak having occurred at some time over the Easter weekend, or just after. This still represents a fall in the percentage increase, however it is a small fall (see data - last 2 columns). This needs to come down. In fact, if the rate continues at 6.3, we will be very close tomorrow (at 977) to the UK's highest (980, on 10th). 1/3
It's still possible that we're seeing a recovery to normal after the Easter holiday, but that should be over by now.
It's worth noting that, at date+14, the UK has crossed the Italian curve, for the first time since 21st March. This could mean that our lockdown hasn't been so effective, though it could also be due to other demographic effects (like, numbers of people who live in houses together). 2/3
If tomorrow's figure - and more importantly, the percentage increase, is not significantly down, we should worry, and ask why not. The UK figures are still lower than a week ago, so don't panic - yet. But I am a little uneasy.
See also my discussion on the #Covid19Cymru figures. 3/3
@AngharadHafod Thank you for your daily analyses. Much appreciated. The lag issue re collected data is, I think, a real handicap here.
